The anime is just getting to the amazing info dump chapters of 956-957 so I figured it’s a good time to post what I make of the information learned from these chapters as well as how they may set the stage for our final war. Also, there is an additional fringe, bold theory of mine at the end :)
Foreshadowing of the Reverie events
First, I would like to begin with what I believe was some clever foreshadowing by Oda that the Reverie would have an incident that involved Alabasta, the military, the Rev Army, (and possibly) the Red Hair Pirates.
Post-Zou we get another classic worldbuilding chapter (823) that has many of the world’s characters getting ready to depart for the Reverie. Among them is the kingdom of Alabasta which features a shit ton of death flags for Cobra as well as this bit of dialogue from Igaram.
Take note of the three oddly specific things he’s worried about: A meteorite falling on Vivi, a monstrous bird carrying her away, and a sniper with their sights on her.
Conveniently enough, these powers all made a debut in the story shortly before in Dressrosa:

• Fujitora making a meteorite fall from the sky
• Karasu producing giant birds that carry Sabo away
• Usopp awakening his Observation haki to snipe Sugar from extremely far away

Why list these three specific things to worry about? I think Oda was using it as foreshadowing of the events that were to take place at The Reverie.
As we know from the break between Act I and Act II, Blackbeard relays the newspaper report that The Revolutionaries and the Admirals clashed at The Reverie. As you see in the background, you can see two of the three aforementioned people about to clash (Fujitora and Karasu).
In between Act II and Act III, we are relayed that there is a certain incident involving Alabasta, to which Shirahoshi is immediately worried about Vivi.
What of the Sniper? While Usopp was obviously not there, a certain mysterious pirate was. Who happens to have a highly skilled sniper in his crew who just happens to be Usopp’s father. While Yasopp hasn’t been shown at The Reverie, I think there may be a chance he could be the “sniper with sights on her'' (not as an enemy though imo) in Igaram’s worries. As Usopp said in Dressrosa: He’s best as a backup. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shanks has his sniper present as backup with all those tall buildings around in Mariejois.
So I believe Igaram’s seemingly hyperbolic worry about Vivi was foreshadowing that three factions representing these powers would clash with Vivi and Alabasta caught in the middle.

• The meteorite from the sky represented by Fujitora and the Marines
• The Birds carrying her away represented by Karasu and the Rev Army
• The sniper with their sights on her represented by Yassop and the Red Hair Pirates

All factions who were present at The Reverie.
What we know of the events that occurred at The Reverie
I’d like to take a moment to review what we know of what events occurred at The Reverie:

• The Gorosei speak of Cobra’s request of them and refer to him as a traitor.
• The one known as “Imu” has chosen Vivi’s picture as an apparent “light to erase from history”
• Shanks meets with the Gorosei to discuss a pirate
• The Admirals And The Revolutionary Army clashed in their mission to retrieve Kuma, as reported by Blackbeard
• The Shichibukai system was abolished
• There was a fatality, as reported by Morgans
• There was also an “attempted murder” as reported by Morgans
• Alabasta is somehow involved with the events that transpired, as reported by Garp
• Sabo is also involved in events, as we learn from the reactions of many people that know him, including shock of his comrades and sadness from his family.
• Whatever has transpired, Blackbeard decides to mobilize to claim something before the government can get their hands on it.
• Finally, Wapol also calls Morgans to leak some additional intel

More or less, I think these events are almost all directly connected. Here is what I believe happened:
Imu and the Gorosei decided it was time to eliminate Cobra and Vivi, as Alabasta houses the Ancient Weapon Pluton, they know of their allyship to the Strawhat’s who is led by a dreaded “D”, and Cobra is asking questions about the history they seek to hide. Ultimately making them a growing threat to their power. They even refer to their family as “traitors”
Shanks meets with the Gorosei to “talk to them about a pirate”. I believe this pirate to be Blackbeard. Similar to what he tried to do with Whitebeard, he is attempting to stop the Gorosei from doing anything hasty because of the threat Blackbeard poses and he’ll take advantage of any chaos, in true Blackbeard fashion.
The Revolutionaries attack at The Reverie in order to rescue their comrade, Kuma. The Gorosei see this as the perfect opportunity to enact their plans to eliminate Cobra and Vivi in the chaos and place the blame on the Revolutionary Army.
They succeed in killing Cobra (who has been riddled with death flags), this is the fatality that Morgans was talking about reporting. However, they were unsuccessful in eliminating Vivi, I believe that she escaped with The Revolutionary Army, however Sabo stayed behind to ensure their escape and was captured (he was determined to die beforehand). The government used this to say that they abducted heshe is missing following an attempt on her life (this is the “attempted murder” Morgans spoke of).
This is why the Revolutionary Army is shocked and Sabo’s family and friends are sad. For the Revolutionary Army, we were told by Koala that the enemy was the Celestial Dragons not the World Government. An important distinction, because news of Sabo killing Cobra and hurting/harming Vivi would certainly shock his comrades as it undermines their mission. However, they haven’t been able to contact them to confirm the facts. To his family, it looks like Sabo has assassinated a world leader and is now in the government’s hands making them insanely sad.
The importance of the World Government eliminating Cobra and Vivi and being able to successfully place the blame on the Revolutionary Army allows them to move into Alabasta unimpeded, giving them the opportunity to get one of their most sought after objectives, The Ancient Weapon Pluton. If it is known the World Government was responsible for their deaths, they wouldn’t have the excuse to move into the country. But being able to place the blame on the Revolutionary Army allows them to fill that vacancy without protest from others of it being some sort of coup.
Which brings me to my next point, this is why Blackbeard is mobilizing. He said he wants to get his hands on it before the Government does. He is speaking of Pluton. He knows the Government will look to seize control of Alabasta but he’ll claim the “prize” Pluton.
At this point, you may ask why the Government was trying to apparently cover up this news and not have Morgans publish it, given it paints the Revolutionary Army in the bad light. Well, I don't think they were actually trying to cover it up. The government has a number of powerful resources at their disposal but they sent a lone nameless fodder CP agent. Why? This is “Big News” Morgans we’re talking about, the man lives for scoops!!
Seriously look at this fearless man! In fact, CP-0 KNOWS that sending a lone agent shouldn’t intimidate him, Stussy is right here with him while they’re FALLING OFF A CASTLE as she remarks he shows no fear in the face of a scoop. The government trying to “cover it up” gives the story more legitimacy for him. They know sending a single nameless fodder agent won’t stop Morgans, they also know it’ll make him publish it as the biggest scoop!
This is important for the government because their ruse depends on a single piece of information from being known to the world at large: The Strawhat Pirates are allies of Vivi and the Alabasta Kingdom. If this were to get out to the world, the plan to frame the Revolutionary Army would fall apart given Luffy’s Father is the head and his sworn brother is the second in command. This is where the call from Wapol comes in...
Finally, Wapol calls Morgans to leak some info. I believe the info that Wapol has is that the Strawhat crew is allied with Vivi, as he ran into them on the way to Drum Island. He is one of the few in the world (who is not their friend) that knows of their relationship, since the government hid the Strawhat’s involvement at Alabasta. If you recall, it was Morgans who published the info that Luffy and Sabo were sworn brothers after Whole Cake Island. If this incident at The Reverie involves both Alabasta and Sabo, then Morgans learning that they're both allies of Strawhat Luffy flips the entire dynamic of the Revolutionary Army attacking the Alabastan royalty.
That is why they sent a single nameless fodder CP agent to “bribe” Morgans, to give him belief that this story worries them enough to hush. That action has more pull than the words of Wapol, who is pretty much known for being a punk ass. So even if Morgans was to learn of the SH-Alabasta connection, he wouldn’t necessarily run with it, as Wapol’s leak is simply hearsay compared to the action of the Government trying to cover it up. This is why Dragon and company accuse Morgans of lying when they read the news as it is something they would not do, however Morgans believes it to be true.
Shanks’ and Blackbeard’s Roles
The second part of the huge info dump chapters has a big focus on the Rocks crew and the history behind them. This is where I believe our other two major players in the final war come in: Shanks and Blackbeard.

1. Shanks is the son of Rocks D. Xebec
2. Blackbeard is the one who inherited the will of Rocks D. Xebec

I will start with Shanks, below are some relevant details I’d like to highlight:

• The Rocks Crew fell 38 years ago at God Valley in an incident that has been erased from the history books. Most notable about this incident is that Garp and Roger teamed up for it and it involved protecting Celestial Dragons. Shanks is slightly older than this at 39 years of age.
• In the Oden flashback Roger remarks it has been ages since he’s held a baby, to which Rayleigh responds it reminds him of “the good ole days” implying they once had a baby involved in their adventures or on the ship.
• During the ceasefire of the Roger vs Whitebeard duel, a newly recruited Teach asks his crew about Buggy and Shanks, to which they tell him despite their young age they have been on Roger’s ship for ages.
• Prior to his death, Roger tells Garp he has a child and he needs to protect him as the son does not carry the sins of the father and he deserves his own life. Garp then takes in his rival’s child and raises him as his own.
• When Whitebeard and Shanks meet up Whitebeard remarks that seeing Shanks’ face makes the scars he got from him ache. It is said that the Rocks crew got along terribly and were often very violent to each other, with even killing occurring within the crew.

If you recall, after Roger was executed one of the first objectives of the Government was to hunt down and end his bloodline. Prior to Roger, Rocks was the government’s biggest threat. I suspect that after Rocks D. Xebec fell 38 years ago, the World Government tried doing the same thing.
Enter Shanks. I believe that Shanks, in similar fashion to Ace, was the surviving heir of a bloodline the World Government wished to eliminate. Upon discovery of his existence Garp had Roger take him and raise him as to not kill a new born child. Shanks was then raised aboard Roger’s ship, this all comes full circle years later when Roger asks the same of Garp with a sheepish grin on his face, knowing he will agree to it.
Many believe that Blackbeard is the descendant of Rocks, while I believe he 100% does have a relation to Rocks it is not familial, instead he is the one who inherited Rocks will. After all, he seemingly has a lot in common with Rocks:

• Sengoku said Rocks’ ambition was to become King of the world and that he broke the world's taboos. Shanks suggests something similar about Blackbeard when he warns Whitebeard - he won’t ever stop aiming for the top. Blackbeard has also broken the world’s taboos by consuming two Devil Fruit which was previously unheard of.
• His ship is named Saber of Xebec, seemingly after Rocks D. Xebec
• His base of operations is on Hachinosu Island, which was the same place that the Rocks pirates were formed. Also the birthplace of the Davy Back Fight.

However, in One Piece, there is a pattern that the son does not inherit the will of their father and oftentimes it's the exact opposite:

• Monkey D. Garp - His son Dragon directly looks to overthrow the organization he works for and his grandson is also one of their biggest threats and aims to become Pirate King like his rival, Roger.
• Gol D. Roger - His son, Portgas D. Ace completely rejected him and dedicated his life to making his pirate rival, Whitebeard, the Pirate King.
• Kaido - His son Yamato literally wants to be Kozuki Oden, the only person to ever scar him and someone he only shamefully defeated through trickery.
• Oden - While his son Momonosuke seeks to carry out his father’s will, by an ironic twist of fate he ate a Devil Fruit that turned him into a Dragon, the same form as the beast who killed his father. (This is a little different, but worth pointing out imo)
• Shanks (D. Xebec)? - If what I believe to be true, Shanks is the son of Rocks D. Xebec, and was raised by his father’s rival Gol D. Roger, who he respects and reveres. Shanks seeks to stop Marshall D. Teach, the man who inherited his father’s evil will.

If Blackbeard is aiming for the top of the world like Rocks, what is it that Shanks is trying to accomplish?
Since Shanks accompanied Roger on his voyages everywhere except Laugh Tale, he at least knows important info like Shyarly’s predictions. I believe he is trying his best to buy time until it is Luffy’s time to bring change to the world.
It has become clear that the story is quickly approaching the important moment in time that Roger was “too early” for.
Shanks, aware of this, made this bet on Luffy as a child seemingly after hearing him say the exact same words Roger said (got a long ass post for that too lol).
Shanks aims to maintain balance in the world until it is Luffy’s time to carry out what his captain could not. Many of his actions seem to indicate he is trying to avoid catastrophic situations that could arise until that time comes and Blackbeard, inheritor of Rocks’ will, is the biggest threat to that:

• When Shanks warns Whitebeard about Teach, he doesn’t try to prevent a quarrel altogether but says it isn't time yet.
• When he saves Koby he mentions the importance of a few seconds.
• When he asks Teach if he wants to fight he laughs it off and he too seems to recognize it is not yet time.
• Most recently Shanks has gone to the Gorosei in an attempt to talk to them, most likely about Teach, in an attempt to maintain balance.

Conclusion - Setting the stage for the Final War
I believe it’s these events that will set the stage of our final war for our participants:

• The World Government
• The Revolutionary Army
• Blackbeard Pirates
• Red-Hair Pirates
• Strawhat Crew (and Grand Fleet)

With the Alabasta royalty out of the way and a convenient scapegoat in the Revolutionary Army, the World Government will move in on Alabasta under the guise of being helpful since their leaders are gone in an attempt to gain control of Pluton.
Blackbeard, inheritor of Rock’s will, who seems to have a lot of knowledge about the secrets of the world, will make his move to try to claim the weapon before they do. “If the government is going to take it (Alabasta) then I’ll claim the prize (Pluton)!”
The Revolutionary Army, who will be blamed by the World Government (and who was also once attacked by Blackbeard) will get involved in this quarrel as well in an attempt to keep the weapon out of their enemy’s hands, and to retrieve Sabo if he is indeed captured.
I think this will be where Shanks makes a move as well (which Oda mentioned in his year end message), in an attempt to maintain order until Luffy is ready and to stop Blackbeard from becoming too powerful, as he is the only one that seemingly knows what he is truly capable of.
We also have the internal split of the WG/CP-0/Akainu “absolute justice” type and the SWORD/Garp type of the military, who seem more noble in their intentions. All of these forces will collide in our final major confrontation.
And of course the Strawhat Crew. The Grand Fleet will get involved as well. A number of them fought alongside Sabo and The Revolutionary Army in Dressrosa and were also present at The Reverie, where they learned of Vivi and the Strawhat friendship. When they read the news about Alabasta and The Revolutionary Army they will know something is afoot and will be ready to spring into action.
Thank you for reading all of this, this is the end of the main body of the post. At the beginning I mentioned I also have a bold fringe theory. I typically like to throw these in at the end as they’re a little more out there but I still believe baby!
Without further ado I present to you below the Vivi Paw Paw Theory:
I will begin with the very first piece of evidence, this intriguing observation in SBS 59 and Oda’s equally interesting answer to it:

D: Odacchi! I noticed an amazing thing!!! It is that if you show the Straw Hat Devil Fruit users in numbers, it will be the numbers from 1~10!!
Luffy→Gomu Gomu (5.6.5.6.), Chopper→Hito Hito (1.10.1.10), Robin→Hana Hana (8.7.8.7.), Brook→Yomi Yomi (4.3.4.3.)
(1.3.4.5.6.7.8.10), but there is no (2.9), so is the one who ate the Nikyu Nikyu (2.9.2.9.) no Mi, Bartholomew Kuma, gonna be a Straw Hat next? Please tell me!!! P.N. SHANKUS.LOVE
O: WHAAAAAT?! (shock) Gosh that surprised me! Why was I surprised?! NO COMMENTTTTTTT!!!!!!!! NEXT!!

Oda’s answer is very interesting to say the least. We’ve seen him play with this (2.9.) thing with Kuma before as well:

• His bounty is 296,000,000
• His birthday is February 9th (2/9)

So the (2.9) fruit is missing from a member of the Strawhat Crew. I think this will go to Vivi, and I'll circle back to her (2.9.) connection in a bit...
“So u/africhic how the hell is Vivi gonna end up with the fruit?”
Since you just read through my long ass theory, I think the Revolutionary Army will be successful in retrieving Kuma, and that Vivi left along with them, aided by whatever sacrifice Sabo made that has been reported in the papers.
If you recall, while they’re going over their plan underground, Karasu mentions that even if they rescue Kuma he might not ever be able to return to being a human.
I believe this will be the case. They will rescue him and he’ll simply be a shell of a person. He is only programmed to take orders from the Government and the Celestial Dragons. While they may rescue him from slavery, there’s the chance he never returns to being human again.
This is where I believe the Revolutionary Army will make the decision to kill him and let him rest instead of existing as an empty husk. However, after the events of The Reverie they decide that it’s best to transfer his Devil Fruit power to someone who will make good use of it. Someone else who is also the leader of a nation that was allied with the government but is now an enemy in their eyes...Princess Vivi!!!
Just like with the Mera-Mera passing on from one sworn brother to the next, the Nikyu Nikyu will go from the leader of a WG allied nation who challenged them, Bartholomew Kuma of the Sorbet Kingdom to another leader who now faces their wrath, Princess Vivi of the Alabasta Kingdom.
While we as an audience still do not understand exactly how Devil Fruit powers transfer after death, it seems some characters have an idea:

• Most notably, Blackbeard is able to take Whitebeard’s power immediately after death. While this could be something unique to Blackbeard it has been demonstrated that they can take the fruit of others and give them to their own crew (shiryu gaining the Clear-Clear fruit)
• Caesar Clown also has shown some knowledge of this, as he seemingly left a bag of fruit on the raft rigged to fail when Smiley was to reincarnate. The fruit then transformed into a Devil Fruit, and he said he’d meet Smiley again.
• Vegapunk also seems to have an insane breadth of knowledge when it comes to Devil Fruit. However, we don’t have evidence of him knowing how they transfer.

My theory relies on someone in the Revolutionary Army having this sort of knowledge. Perhaps Dragon or someone like Lindbergh who seems to be a genius inventor.
This would complete the pattern of all the “numbered” Devil Fruit belonging to a member of the Strawhat Crew. So how does the (2.9.) fit in like I mentioned earlier?
Let us go way back to the Baroque Works Saga. The only reason why Vivi was able to: Meet up and ally with the Straw Hats to begin their journey Meet up on their way out to depart on great terms and establish a beautiful friendship
Is because of two men who chose the power of FRIENDSHIP over all:

• Mr. 2
• Mr. 9

It was because of Mr. 9 (and Ms. Monday) that Vivi was able to escape Mr. 5 and Miss Valentine. He chose their friendship and gave her an avenue to escape and reach the Strawhats.
It was because of Mr. 2 choosing his friendship with the Straw Hats that they were able to meet up with Vivi and say goodbye in this iconic scene, able to leave on beautiful terms.
What were the two numbers missing from the crew’s Devil fruit? 2 and 9.
Whose heroic actions enabled the friendship of the Strawhat Crew and Vivi to bloom? Mr. 2 and Mr. 9.
Luffy = Gomu Gomu (5,6 5,6)
Chopper = Hito Hito (1,10 1, 10)
Robin = Hana Hana (8, 7 8, 7)
Brook = Yomi Yomi (4,3 4,3)
Vivi = Nikyu Nikyu (2,9 2,9)
Thus completes my Vivi PawPaw Theory.
If you’re still here...thank you for reading all this lmfao

Roland Garros : Aviator Adventurer? Or Mythical Dragon? Let's look at the facts.
1) Pokemon named the dragon looking pokemon Garrados (or something like that). Where did they get that idea? hmm
2) If you rearrange the letters in Roland Garros you get Roslan's Dragon, so the real question is was Roslan an aviator? because clearly Roland Garros was not
3) Many people dispute the realness of dragons, but have you ever been to France? If not, I promise you they had dragons
4) 4
5) Where did people even get the idea for airplanes from? Answer : from dragons. Dragons are notoriously good inventors, ever heard of fire? hoarding wealth? let's be honest, humans are just dragon wannabe's
Here's some tennis :
Djokovic Berankis : Quick standard work from Novak in the first round. No one looks more perfectly effortless than him when he’s in control. Berankis did well to surprise the lackluster Dellien even though clay isn’t his best surface. Dellien will likely be off the tour next year without some major grinding on the challenger tour. This next matchup looked good for a while at the USO but will be a similar result and a faster one on clay. Djokovic in 3.
Galan Sandgren : Cam Norrie and Galan played one of the worst 5-setters you could see if you were betting on either one. Nonstop exchanges of multiple games and no one could really sustain offense. I had thought Galan would run away with this one as he’s such a specialist but Norrie (when he wasn’t making errors) had control here and was the only one who could really change the direction of the ball or serve aces. Just the same scorelines but completely different play in the Sandgren and Hurkacz match. Sandgren hung around in the first set even though Hurkacz was dictating. It appeared fairly obvious that Sandgren’s plan was to hang in rallies and not go for much, hoping for errors. When Hurkacz managed to get broken at the end of the first it began to look like that was a solid strategy.
Sandgren was constantly serving at duece, facing break points in so many service games, and genuinely did not win this match at all. Hurkacz will need time or a new mental approach, because he’s losing matches due to errors, and this is a baaaaaad thing on tour because so many guys strategy when things get tight is to “try hard hope to earn errors”. When you’re known for making them guys try harder, and then you’re in the rare prison of supplying all the offense to a match. Guys like Federer can play 3 sets of offense, most of the tour is going to need to play error-free tennis so that their opponents are forced to at least go for something. Sandgren turned the tide in the 4th and 5th and Hurkacz began facing break points in all his games. The heavy ball Sandgren hits translates to a slightly more annoying pusher style, as he can kinda go for big targets and rely on pace/weight of shot to earn the point.
This next matchup opened at -195 for Sandgren and I tend to disagree. Sandren played an exhausting match but has gone through a number of deep runs at majors before. He’s not mercurial by any means on clay but he’s been working very hard the past few weeks to get his game together. Where Hurkacz has the weapons to really hurt Sandgren, Galan relies more on work ethic and simple consistency to unseat opponents. Barring fatigue, I don’t see Sandgren losing this, and he’ll have ample opportunities to break. His movement isn’t as good as Norrie but his offensive/service game are world’s more reliable. Sandgren in 4.
Garin Polmans : Garin and Kohl played a pretty good match, and Garin’s returning was what really got him over the finish line here. A lot of deep placement kept the times Kohl broke him from becoming a major issue, as he did have his chances. Garin is a player who thrives on flow and the more matches he wins the better he performs. Polmans, well, Polmans partied all over Humbert today. It was one-sided from start to finish, with Humbert just reflecting the ball and Polmans driving it. Fatigue could be a suggestion, but if you look at the guys who came from the ultra-fast courts of Hamburg they all struggled early in their matches. Humbert is not quite the physical talent that Rublev and Tsitsipas are so he wasn’t able to turn the tide, but they all found their timing around the 3rd set. Humbert’s mom is still cool, and he still has a bright future. If you like Polmans’ wacky hat and vivid celebrations on court (he seems almost like he’s about to start awkwardly breakdancing while celebrating/lamenting shots), him notching a win at a major is great for his ranking.
Garin is a better Polmans. I don’t consider Humbert’s demise a total implosion, and Polmans will be involved in this contest, but Garin is a player who usually loses to bigger weapons, and while Polmans moves the ball well he isn’t overwhelming. He can win a set or two because Garin is still in somewhat a daze from Hamburg, but I think Polmans will play Garin into a rhythm and Garin’s precision tend to improve as he strings games together. Garin in 4.
Vesely Khachanov : Vesely is starting to look like himself. Originally the inspiration for some Geico commercials, his transition to tennis has been brilliant, and his serving combined with the fact that he’s a lefty mean his game gives him an edge against most lower-tier players. Khachanov was one of the better comeback stories you’ll ever see in a straight set win. Majchrzak led by a break in every set and just couldn’t keep it together. A hint of future brilliance, but again his biggest issue is not being able to distance himself from his opponents in matches. Once Khachanov buttoned up his errors when he was down a break, it became difficult for Majchrzak to win rallies. I expect something similar in this tie with Vesely.
Vesely’s backhand has been the side that makes errors during neutral rallies, and for a guy who crushes the ball this represents a big target. Vesely will need to serve well to have a shot at this, and while matches between two big hitters tend to never go in straight sets, Khachanov and Garin looks like an inevitability. Khachanov in 4.
Bautista Agut Balasz : I’ve never seen someone look so dominant while getting beaten down. In the first set RBA was broken at love multiple times. Gasquet hit a number of unreal winners down the line with his backhand and worked to earn points with 20 shot rallies over and over. He led 5-2 at one point, but RBA had barely missed a shot to that point, aside from a few backhands into the net. Gasquet was emitting a quality of sweat I recognize as deep deep swampwater, and I know when things are that humid that comebacks are not in the cards. Gasquet lost the 1st set tiebreaker and was just about done. Gasquet is French for something, and while he’s out of the tournament here, he certainly has a neat backhand and a cool name,
Balasz was one of the cheapest and most straightforward options of the day, and Uchiyama never really put up a fight. Balasz has an interesting game and is worth watching, but his tournament is likely over. Gasquet was brilliant in the first set and still only won 9 games. The heavier balls and slower conditions mean RBA has a tough time hitting through the court, but the flipside is it’s very difficult to find points against him. Balasz may confuse him for a while, but errors will come as he forces shots. RBA in 3-4.
Pella Carreño Busta : Busta busta busta, I made you out of clayyyyyy. I know Pella’s name is first but I was just so relaxed watching PCB play his first round. He really comes into a match with a complete gameplan and sticks with it no matter the scoreline. Unpopular opinion : I don’t think he was going to lose in any fewer than 5 sets against Novak in NY. When he’s fresh and not making backhand errors it becomes extremely difficult to beat him, and for a guy whose somewhat regarded as a defensive player he steps into the court and unloads for winners whenever it’s possible. He is what Sandgren is trying to be.
Pella and Caruso played what must have been a depressing match for Caruso fans. Endless rallies, great quality tennis, but no real way for either player to find clean winners. Matches like that are difficult to watch because your neighbor will hear 3 hours of grunting coming from your apt and also because you know a few random points at the end of sets are going to decide things. Pella won those points, and though he was down early breaks he looked like himself for the first time. I’m glad I announced he has a terrible injury; I now know how to summon top play from any opponent.
I don’t know exactly what to expect from this matchup. They’ve traded some wins on hardcourt, but have oddly never played on clay. PCB’s movement/stamina are the biggest differences between him and Caruso, whose game sort of broke down as things progressed. Pella certainly played well, and even in a losing effort he’s going to make you play a ton of balls. The edge has to go to PCB given their recent forms, but his proclivity for going to duece means this could go the distance. PCB in 4-5.
Struff Altmaier : Struff and Tiafoe, or Struffafoe as they’re known from now on, played a pretty good quality match. I once again feel Tiafoe needs better coaching, as he was winning a fair number of the baseline rallies but insisted on playing dropshots. They cost him this match. I don’t know a nice way to outline that winning on tour just isn’t easy. The mental lapses are always going to cost you at a professional level, but Tiafoe has shown great improvements following the tour’s break, and you can’t just summon the type of resolve/focus that Nadal has. It’ll take time.
Altmaier (whose name is super annoying to type) beat Lopez in straight sets but these two pretty much started every service game at 15-40. It wasn’t great, but the conditions were such that Altmaier was able to take deep return positions and frustrate Lopez into forcing offense. A good win, and the comfort level may be a bit higher here against Struff, which should benefit him a great deal. Playing on tour in a major after grinding the challenger tour is something that gives you adrenaline you just don’t need at times, so a bit of comfort is a plus. I see a lot of recent wins for Altmaier but he hasn’t really played someone the caliber of Struff, and Struff’s loss to Coria troubles me but in a 3/5 format and after the good quality rallies him and Tiafoe had, Struff should be able to find an edge here. Struff in 4 or losing because he’s Struff.
Harris Berrettini : Popyrin really struggled on serve at times, and didn’t seem like he’d been playing enough clay leading into this match. Harris seems to get most of his points on tour in the majors, which is interesting for such a young talent. Berretini beat Pospisil like he did something, and there’s not a lot to say about this next matchup. Harris is a great server but lacks consistency. Berretini in 3.
Medvedev Ramos-Vinolas : Oops. The strangest thing about Medvedev’s loss was how early he started complaining about it. Halfway through the first set he was down a break and already fullscale yelling at the sky/his box/local squirrels/some children/the moon/the ocean/a rock/some guy. It reminded me of Novak’s wild frustration early against PCB. These guys shouldn’t be stressing so early in a match, but I think sometimes they know the writing is on the wall and the thought is too much. Fucsovics is not really a household clay name, but he stayed composed and got the job done here. Medvedev just forced shots here over and over, and it’s strange because his serve works fine on clay and his defense is good enough to really grind points.
ARV vs Mannarino on clay is like Mannarino vs ARV on grass. These guys have such specific styles that they really can’t overcome a surface disadvantage. ARV is the sort of test that Medvedev should have been for Fucsovics once he went down a few sets; very solid defensively, doesn’t give you much to work with, and works multiple shots to earn points rather than just hoping for a W. I tend to think Fucs is up to the task, and while the “going to disneyland” notion creeps in after a big win, Fucs has had enough “almost” situations against the top 20 that notching a win won’t change his game. Both should be fresh for this one and it should be a clean, crispy tennis match. Fucsovics in 3-4.
Giron Monteiro : So many matches went to overtime this first round. Both Halys and Giron were up a break in the 5th set, which is a much different feeling from Monteiro’s day. Thiago (which is the coolest name in the draw) added to Basil’s woes, breaking early and often. He just came off a finals appearance at a challenger a week ago and continued his good form. Giron represents a tough test because his speed/forehand are a gamechanger at times, but he’s unlikely to get the job done unless he gets an early lead. Monteiro tends to get out to quick starts and is a brilliant frontrunner. I give Giron a puncher’s chance, but can’t really think of a way he can win unless Monteiro’s backhand completely falls apart. Monteiro in 3-4.
Lajovic Anderson : When I picture these two I always think of them sitting across from each other wearing black turtlenecks and evilly stroking cats. Lajovic had a pretty tough time with Mager, who crushes the ball and is a good indication that Anderson’s hitting (during the rally at least) won’t be too much of an issue. Djere refused to hold serve in this match, and that’s a bad decision to make against a server. They played much of the first stretch of their match in light rain, and Djere seemed visibly upset heading into the break. I would say this was an empty victory for Anderson, but he served well and he at some point, will find his former form since he’s not exactly too old for the tour yet. I feel the same about Nishikori but the question of when is a difficult puzzle if you’re not in his camp.
Being conscious of your biases in assessing matches is a useful tool, and I’m aware that I’d never be backing Anderson in this one with Lajovic in good form. Due to this, Anderson having actually beaten Lajovic on clay two years ago in Madrid makes me think this is going to be closer than I’d normally expect. Anderson at full health gives him a slight nod. Lajovic on a decent run gives it to him here. I wouldn’t bet against Anderson here, but Lajovic in 5.
Davidoch Fokina Rublev : First time watching Mayo and he has a really nice game. Good power, good forehand, pushes the pace well. He was up early in the 1st but once errors crept into his game it slipped away from him. There’s a big key in professional tennis and it’s being able to maintain a level throughout a match, even if it means playing slightly less than your all-out game throughout. Fokina is very solid and very comfortable. He seems like win or lose his expression will remain the same, and that’s more confidence than indifference. Rublev played one of the more difficult first rounds, as anyone who expected Sam Querrey to come out firing that well must have six magic 8-balls hooked up to a super intelligent iguana flying along a slip-and-slide on it’s way to Narnia. Querrey is a scary guy when he serves well and his forehand is a thing of useless beauty. Ruvlev/Tsitsipas/Humbert all seemed like their timing was poor early in the matches and Rublev was the first to turn it around.
Fokina would win the first two sets against the Rublev from the first two sets. There’s no intimidation factor and his backhand/movement are rocksolid which is good since that’s the thing Rublev attacks the most. I think this is a tighter contest than oddsmakers are predicting but Fokina’s ability to hit winners during these baseline rallies is something I think will be absent. Earning errors, fine. Winning neutral exchanges at net, I definitely think so. Finding his way out of baseline rallies without Rublev errors? Idk. Rublev in 4-5.
Shapovalov Carballes Baena : Shap played one of the least inspiring first rounds of the heavy favorites, trading breaks and looking at times like he wouldn’t be able to find the effort to hit through Simon. Simon was happy to move the ball around but really couldn’t find 1st serves at any point in the match. It was not a great match which makes the next round interesting. RCB had some injury concerns for me going in but eclipsed those, beating Steve Johnson 1, 1, 0. For those of you not familiar with tennis, these are not good scores. RCB represents the opposite version of Simon’s game. He is dynamic, has multiple names, and hits with pace. He doesn’t serve aces but he puts his 1st serve in at a good clip, and although Shap should win this matchup almost all the time, his struggles against the pusher style of Simon in the first round make me wonder how much patience/resolve he has left after a month and a half of nonstop tennis. Shapovalov is not the -660 favorite that he is priced at in the books, and I’d avoid this one entirely unless you’re looking at RCB or the over. Shap still did break almost at will, so I’ll give him the slight nod despite his issues holding serve/hitting the ball over the net. (for those of you not familiar with tennis, hitting the ball over the net is often an effective strategy) Shapovalov in 4-5.
Martin Dimitrov : Maybe there’s something about Tuesdays that make me nervous about upsets, but this is an interesting contest. Dimitrov is -700 in this one. I also think he’s playing great ball lately, but that is not the correct line. Dimitrov is a big market and people haven’t heard of Martin so it lands this way. Sousa didn’t particularly do anything wrong in his opener against Martin, except for doing each thing you could do wrong once. He just looks unlucky out there. He’s hitting well at times, but just seems to find an error or unfortunate way to lose the point over and over. Martin, on the other hand, was crushing the ball. He hit clean winners time and time again on Sousa’s second serve, and I think that while he isn’t expected to beat Dimitrov, his ability to generate offense during baseline rallies will give him opportunities in some spots.
Dimitrov rolled Barrere, but he served at duece in a number of games. Barrere is a nice hardcourt player, but really hasn’t won too many matches on clay. It became a perfect situation for Dimitrov, who looks great when things are going well. Martin is the type of player that clay tends to produce; not a dominant guy or a title-winner, but someone who is very comfortable with their game and who isn’t too troubled situationally (similar to what we saw from Munar today competing against Tsitsipas without too much mental duress). If this were 2/3 I’d like Martin. In 3/5 I think Dimitrov will have ample chances to break serve, and so will only lose in 5. Martin in 5.
Milojevic Bedene : Upset of the first round for Milojevic. He hit the ball solid and was proactive about his shot selection, hugging the baseline and taking time away. Krajinovic really never had a chance to breathe in this one and as a player who refuses to move off the baseline, Kraj made a number of errors on the backhand trying to stand his ground. Nothing really new from him, as he’s been great on clay and also struggled at times. Bedene was solid against Rinderknech, who reminds me a bit of Ruusuvuori and may make his way on tour in a year or two. Good groundstrokes, very fluid forehand, and just a bit less experience giving Bedene the edge late in the match.
This is another match where I lean towards the upset, but is the breakdown. Milojevic beat a superior player in Krajinovic, but a less consistent one. Kraj has had his fair share of struggles. Bedene isn’t a threat for deep runs in events, but gets the job done very consistently when he’s “supposed” to win. That’s a big thing on tour, as upsets happen. I did like Milojevic’s pace, and were he playing someone who has a bit more variety in their game, I’d think he had a better shot. Bedene tends to play a very similar game though, and the edge here will be very small. Milojevic elevating his game as the Kraj match progressed rather than barely getting across the finish line indicates to me fatigue wasn’t a factor and that it was just a one-and-done effort. Milojevic in 4-5.
Cuevas Tsitsipas : Haha they put the Uruguayan flag for both, I thought. But it turns out I am a muppet and have much to learn about the world. Many countries enjoy stripey goodness it seems. Cuevas was a bit too good today, negating the over of 35 games even while going to 4 sets. Laaksonen looked ok in the second but Cuevas’ loopy returns saw Henri making error after error. The ball hitting the net with an open court is something that seems to compound struggles on tour, and this was over quickly. The polar opposite of Tsitsipas’ war with Munar, which took forever and featured some of the most skillful exchanges of the first round. Munar is everything you want in a smol one. Unexpected dropshots, clean shots down the line, and the ability to transfer luck if you rub his head. Tsitsipas looked very impatient, and I feel for Munar who really never had a chance to win after Tsitsipas found form, but Stefanos making this comeback is a very good sign. He was drenched in sweat, struggling to put this away, and never really blew up.
Stefanos and Pablo played a week ago and although Cuevas was good, Tsitsipas seemed like he was able to defend the court well enough that Cuevas was only going to get the match with errors. I expect to see something similar here, although Stefanos won’t be able to afford the sort of slow start he made against Munar. Tsitsipas in 4 or Cuevas in 4.
Bublik Sonego : Bublik got the job done, and Monfils left fans wondering if he really wants to be out there fighting any more. Nothing wrong with losing to a great server whose career is on the rise, but Monfils seems like he’s not fully engaged out there, and so as a professional athlete, people are going to ask questions. Sonego and Gomez had a good contest, and while I think Sonego matches up well with Bublik, taking 5 sets with Gomez means Bublik will be able to find breaks of serve. There are likely to be some tiebreakers here, but given Bublik’s ability to serve out Monfils, he’s likely to win them. Bublik in 4.
Albot Fritz : If you read my predictions, you know what’s coming. Albot broke his slump by playing spirited ball again Thompson. It was one of the quicker matches in the first round, lasting just (insert however many minutes it lasted). Fritz Fritz’d it up, almost dropping the ball against qualifier Machac. Considering he barely snuck by, there’s reason to believe this will be a tough contest as well, even with Albot’s struggles. Albot tests his opponents movement, Fritz makes errors on the run. Albot breaks serve at a higher clip than most guys on tour, Fritz is mainly just a server. I think Fritz is the better player here, but I think that the lead will be very important for belief here, since Albot has struggled lately. I think Albot’s movement will be a key on the slower surface, but he’ll need to get off to a quick lead since Fritz (as many servers are) is a very dangerous opponent in a 5th set. Albot in 4.
Gombos Rodionov : Finally a good reliable favorite. I warned readers that Gombos is the Gombosiest, but they didn’t listen. Coric found out the hard way, and honestly there difference in this one was just ballstriking. Coric was moving the ball around looking to present the “you can’t hit through me” challenge, and while this is a good strategy in later rounds, guys really crush the ball in the first round and the pace is much quicker. Gombos almost snagged Cilic in the USO, and didn’t falter here. Rodionov waited as long as possible to get going against Chardy, going down 2 sets and only winning the tiebreaker 8-6. He served for the match in the 5th set 3 times, and had a very lucky day to be playing Chardy. Chardy just couldn’t keep the ball in the court on offense, and will have to earn his points in the indoor season this year.
Rodionov plays a solid game, and being lefty helps, but he lacks big weapons which is why he mostly plays on the challenger tour. Gombos has enough power to be able to dictate here, and Rodionov coming through the qualifier and played 5 long sets will make this an uphill battle. Considering Gombos hit through Coric, the defense is unlikely to phase him. Gombos in 3.
Giustino Schwartzman : Lorenzo Giustino and Corentin Moutet had played the match of the first round by the end of the 2nd set. Moutet was just in unreal form and dictating most of the rallies in this one. Where he suffered was in two patterns. Giustino hit his forehand with height/shape rather than pace into Moutet’s backhand. Once into this pattern the shorter Moutet tended to drive the backhand downward crosscourt and Giustino would execute the same shot. The backhand never broke down but Giustino was able to wear down Moutet’s patience, and he took many opportunities as the match went on to run around his backhand and hit the inside in forehand. Giustino hit this ball crosscourt every time, really not missing often. These are simple exchanges but it’s the same shotpatterns that Djokovic employs against Nadal. What transpired was Giustino’s speed being pitted against Moutet’s arm, and while it looked like Giustino wouldn’t find offense, Moutet’s forehand got more loopy and Giustino found winners crosscourt since he was able to drive the ball more, and Moutet’s backhand lost depth and Giustino was able to catch Moutet with the forehand down the line over and over. If people are looking for the way to beat these lefty patterns this was a great example.
I had hoped Moutet would win, as his offense would be able to trouble Diego a bit more. Schwartzman beat Kecmanovic easily, and Kecmanovic had that “this draw sucks and I’m already thinking about the next tournament” glazed look in his eyes throughout this match. Giustino has to be exhausted at this point, after qualifying and playing an extra 2 sets of tennis in the 5th. Diego is the wrong opponent to try to outlast, and I think unfortunately Giustino will be more error prone here which will drive Moutet insane from wherever he’s watching. Schwartzman in 3.
Wawrinka Koepfer : Mats Wilander’s comment that Murray should leave these wildcards to younger players has some validity, but his presentation is part of what is wrong with social media. If he really had this concern, he could send Murray a message and offer some perspective. Maybe the clay tour isn’t really where Murray needs to play at this point. Posting these “open letters” and private messages as tweets is a really bizarre way to posture and the messages tend to be more about the person writing them than the issue at hand. Now, unfortunately, Mats Wilander (who I have never heard of) is an official douchenozzle in my mind. Unfortunate, but not as unfortunate as Murray/Wawrinka not giving us the classic we were all hoping for. Wawrinka has stumbled so badly recently that him playing his normal solid top 10 clay court tennis was unexpected. Murray’s movement was poor, but most players are going to lose to Wawrinka when he plays well.
Koepfer looked solid against in dispatching Hoang, and there’s something to the idea that this next contest will be tricky for Stan. There’s always the crisp shotmaking and overwhelming power, but Koepfer is not really looking to win the hitting contest anyway, and instead thrives on scrambling rallies and working his opponent’s backhand. The outcome here depends entirely on Wawrinka, as Koepfer is likely to be steady throughout. I expect at least one set to go the German’s way, as he has proven to be an extremely difficult out. Wawrinka in 4-5 but I would avoid backing Stan here if you like dollars, especially since he’ll likely show his level and have a more predictably simple match the next round against Nishioka. With guys who are good for deep runs in tournaments if they’re playing well, it often helps to gather information rather than let that fear of missing out have you backing question marks.
Gaston Nishioka : Lefty fiiiiiiiight! Gaston won the all-French affair pretty comfortably and Nishioka’s quality in his win over FAA was completely ignored. FAA can’t serve! FAA so many errors! Part of this is inconsistency but part of this is Nishioka being a wall and constantly moving his opponent. Gaston will be at a disadvantage here experience-wise but lefty vs lefty is always a difficult task for both, and Nishioka has been a mixed bag on the clay so far this season. Very tough to know how these two will match up, but the pre-match edge has to sit with Nishioka. Nishioka in 4.
Ruud Paul : Pretty simple victories for both of these two, and this will be a great match to watch. Paul has shown he can compete at the top level, but watching him in his doubles match today he didn’t seem to be serving great. His partner Monroe is a great player to watch at net which is why I caught it, and inferences from doubles aren’t the most reliable, but I think Paul will need to avoid long rallies with Ruud, who has been improving every week since the restart. Pretty similar styles at different points in their career. Ruud in 4.
Sock Thiem : Sock had some genuine emotion winning games against Opelka, and it’s nice to see him visibly motivated after his chubby troubles. Thiem looked like there wasn’t much adjustment to clay in the first round, and he was extremely composed/reserved while beating Cilic. Cilic isn’t in great form, but beating him so easily is a real testament to Thiem’s solid position in the top 2-3 players in tennis. Sock’s skill and whippy forehand allow him to match up better against the top tier than the results will indicate, but with Sock’s backhand still a liability this isn’t a spot where Thiem will struggle too much. Thiem in 3 and let the inbox threats begin, he is my pick to win this tournament.
Zverev Herbert : Zverev continued his slow start strong finish method against Novak. Once he locks down the errors he becomes a very tough out and he hits the ball with such reservation during rallies that when he does finally go for a clean winner his opponents almost don’t move. In Serena’s age of dominance she’d often lose the first two games and then break back and her opponents level would fall and Zverev’s slow starts give me the same sort of “accidental or genius” psychological strategic vibes. It’s more likely it’s just tall players start slow. Herbert beat Mmoh, who is somehow a pusher that makes errors. I’d like to see him (Mmoh) go a bit more offensive for a season, as looking to be solid from the baseline just isn’t enough to win on tour.
The Herbert Zverev matchup is an interesting one since Herbert’s game has the things that traditionally would snag a player who starts slow. Herbert is an old-school serve and volley player who is adept at adjusting his strokes to keep the ball in the court. Zverev is a bit too crispy at the moment to expect a bit blowup, but Herbert having a higher caliber of offense than Novak (who plays a bit too straightforward to really beat the mid-top tier guys) gives him a better chance. Zverev in 4.
Londero Cecchinato : Londero flipped the result against Delbonis, who he’d lost in straight sets against in their previous meeting. It’s nice to see him back in the win column, as he plays a very unique game, going for accurate offense and looking to test his opponents speed. If it weren’t for fatigue, I’d think he were a decent favorite. Cecchinato has been great though, and murmurs of his previous French Open run were flying with his snowball beatdown of De Minaur. De Minaur isn’t the best on clay, as many pointed out, but he has some notable wins in his past including PCB, and beating him is never simple. Cecchinato’s power gives him an edge here if Londero is tired. Slower legs will leave more short balls and Cecchinato can really dictate. He’s also fairly deft at using the dropshot which can wear his opponents down. Where I hesitate to just hand him the win is that these new wins have been out of nowhere, and he hasn’t played a real top level player yet. Londero is the first such test, as his claycourt game can threaten all but the top 10-20 guys at the French. No pick here, but if either is able to win this quickly then Zverev is in for a difficult 3rd round.
Paire Coria : Local kumquat Benoit Paire played quite well, beating Kwon in straight sets. There wasn’t a lot of hope for Kwon, and he struggled with his serving throughout. Paire, whose attention span is that of a drunk raccoon, will be a small favorite in his next round against Coria, but Coria is the quintessential villain to beat Paire. Coria lacks offense, but is a venerable wall. The errors Kwon made will be less available, and with Sinner looming in the next round both guys will know this is their last chance to advance. I expect Paire to either find great form here or lose. Finding great form isn’t what I expect, and if Coria is able to earn an early lead this could be over quick. Coria in 4.
Bonzi Sinner : Bonzi played great against Ruusuvuori, and I got that match completely wrong. Sinner’s defeat of Goffin coupled with his 6-2, 6-2 loss to Cilic a week or so ago makes me think Goffin is either a bit injured or just not fully engaged in this clay swing, but Sinner looks great. Sinner in 4.
Kukushkin Martinez : Fognini Fognini’d all over the place. He seemed to hurt his ankle during the 3rd set tiebreaker, and for a guy who lacks a bit of self control he shockingly did not withdraw. This seems to be one of his principles, as he’s finished matches injured before. Good win for Kukushkin, who hung around until he was given the match. Martinez on the other hand went out and earned it, downing the hard hitting Vukic in straight sets.
Martinez and Kukushkin are unlikely to have huge edges against each other. Kukushkin does his best work at majors, but not really on clay, and Martinez is a claycourt expert, but generally earns errors/preys on his opponents inconsistency. I expect long rallies, and I expect Martinez to gradually pull away in this one. Martinez in 5.
Korda Isner : I’m gonna have to be honest. I completely missed Isner’s match. It didn’t seem like Benchetrit was returning much, and Isner is generally the same. That being said, I regret this because Korda played very well in defeating Seppi and I’d like to be more confident about defending his chances here. Korda plays very well at net, and while he’s a bit green, he’s been losing in the qualifiers on tour for a few seasons now. Him starting to win matches now means we can expect a solid performance from him. He’ll have the edge in baseline rallies, and given they’re from the same country, he’ll be somewhat familiar with Isner’s game. This will come down to Korda’s ability to avoid bad service games, and whether Isner’s serve is unreturnable or not. These are question marks, and I’m starting to hate question marks. Not as much as I hate people bouncing the ball between their legs before their serves though. Korda in fourda.
Nishikori Travaglia : Clay Nishikori is back! A late 5th set victory against Evans saw many bettors writing creative words into the livestream chat, and if you’ve never been called an assfish, you can only imagine how upset Dan is tonight. Kei was happy to get across the finish line, and he has to feel like he can breathe a sigh of relief. Travaglia beat Pablo Andujar, who I have been instructed by my attorney to point out is not from Colombia and does not live in the jungle and does not train jaguars and does not sleep in a cave and does not channel magical eagles and definitely does not possess the ability to call the wind from within his lungs which are definitely not made out of the spirit of a cursed python. Andujar had been on a tear, and beating him in straight sets coupled with Travaglia’s serving prowess mean I make him a slight favorite to beat Kei in this matchup. Since Kei is struggling to find length and rhythm playing a big hitter is likely a bad situation, and I give Kei a good chance since he’s such a difficult defender to beat but he really will be behind the 8-ball in his service games. Travaglia in 4-5.
McDonald Nadal : Nice win and some much needed points and bucks for Mackie. Nadal didn’t look great against Gerasimov but Egor was hitting some great offense and Nadal doesn’t exactly need to press early. Nadal in 3 and the next round against Travaglia will be a good look at Nadal’s level.
​
Finishing up the women's now. Should be up in an hour or two. <3

An imperfect science, but SkyBet are now no longer offering odds on the Reguilon transfer after they dropped to 1/20 for him to join spurs. In my experience when they remove a player from the list it's because the deal is done!
As of writing, Bale to Spurs is 1/5... 👀
Edit: Just to fuel the hype train a little, some more players with spurs odds. Where I don't state otherwise, spurs are the lowest odds. Keep your pinches of salt very large, but also get very overexcited:
Milik 5/1 (1/4 to go to Roma) Eriksen 4/1 Carlos Vinicius 3/1 Ings 8/1 (joint fave with Utd Daka 2/1

As per usual, expect these things to change by the start of the new season, especially if a new forward is signed. As a guide, (?) means that the player is in the Manchester City squad but not in the game and (??) means that the player is a rumored signing for the Sky Blues.
TLDR: De Bruyne and maybe Foden if you are feeling spicy.
Goalkeepers:
Ederson (£6.0): Although the city stopper claimed his first golden glove for the club since Joe Hart, he still returned his lowest amount of FPL points last season. At 6.0, He is still a premium goalkeeper who will likely still face problems getting points unless a player like Koulibaly is signed. Key errors in games such as the Manchester United and Lyon illustrate that Ederson is not 100% trustworthy. However, a more direct approach from Guardiola can benefit Ederson in terms of potential assists.
Verdict: .5 too much, avoid for now but keep an eye out for him
Bravo (£4.5): Not sure why he is still in the game, he's going to be off in the summer
Verdict: Avoid
Steffen (£?): The U.S.A. international is set to return from his loan spell in the Bundesliga. Although he impressed throughout the season, Steffen will surely be #2 to Ederson in the pecking order throughout the season. He will likely be priced at around 4.5 as well but he will only have value if Ederson goes down with an injury
Verdict: Only viable if Ederson gets a long term injury
Defenders:
Walker (£6.0): Oh Kyle Walker. A great footballer in real life but provides questionable value regardless that he scored miles ahead of any other city defender. His spot in the starting 11 should be the most nailed on amongst outfield players next season. If City strengthens their defense, he will provide additional value with his clean sheets. A true lack of contribution in the final third hampers Walker's potential, but he will likely rank amongst the top-scoring defenders at City next season.
Verdict: Too expensive for his value due to his lack of end product. Avoid
Otamendi (£5.0): I bet most Manchester City fans already thought he left the club. Although he was the 2nd highest FPL scoring defender for City last year, expect him to put up a fat 0 points this season.
Verdict: Avoid!!!
Ake (£5.5) After Laporte's less than impressive game against Lyon in the Champions League, Ake has become a more intriguing prospect. That being said, the odds of him beating out the Frenchman to the starting left center-back position is unlikely, especially at the start of the new season. If Laporte happens to go down again with another injury, Ake would be a great player. It is also worth noting that Guardiola may deploy Ake at left-back and defensive midfielder throughout the season, but he will largely only serve a rotational purpose.
Verdict: Avoid for now
Mendy (£6.0): Perhaps one of the most overpriced players in the game. He recently lost his place in the starting 11 to an out of position Joao Cancelo. Mendy will likely only be a rotational left-back this season, splitting time with both Cancelo and Ake. Adding into account his injury risks and lack of consistency just makes this problem worse. Unless Mendy has a true breakout season, 6.0 is far too expensive for the leader of the Shark Team.
Verdict: Mostly likely avoid all season
Laporte (£6.0): The heart of our defense. Although he has a few bad games a season, he is by far the best defender at the club at this moment. An early injury ruled him out for several months and took away the possibility for a great season. This season, however, Laporte could prove to be an effective choice in the Man City backline. This is largely dependent on who will partner him come the start of the new season.
Verdict: Only for those with lots of faith in City's defending.
Fernandinho (£5.5): The ever-present Brazilian in the Manchester City lineup for the past few seasons may be taking a step back this season as additional competition complied with his aging limbs will likely deem Dinho fantasy irrelevant. The same price as Ake, I expect Dinho to play fewer minutes than his new teammate this season, although a greater proportion of them may be in midfield. For FPL, Dinho has never been a viable option. This season, I expect the trend to continue
Verdict: Only a lunatic would pick him.
Zinchenko (£5.5): Things do not look good for the Ukrainian rapper. Not only did he lose his spot to both Mendy and Cancelo, but additional competition in Ake (and in theory Angelino) will only help plummet Zinchenko's stock. As a traditional midfielder, Zinchenko may prove to have value if he gets loaned out to another team should they choose to play him further up the pitch. As for now, I wouldn't place my bets on Zinchenko to have value this season.
Verdict: Look out for a potential loan.
Cancelo (£5.5): Joao Cancelo. The right-back turned left-back that only recently has proven to be trusted by Pep Guardiola. Not trusted enough, however, to avoid extra competition with the signing of Ake. I expect Cancelo to start the season for Manchester City at left-back barring any new left-back signings, but I am skeptical of his ability to put up points for our fantasy teams.
Verdict: Risky and expensive differential
Garcia (£5.0): Before the news broke out that Garcia has desires to go back to Barcelona, I believed that the future looked bright for the young Spaniard. Garcia started in most of Manchester City's games following the resumption of the league and although he had to be babysat by Laporte in those games, he showed enough for me (and Pep) to rate him over Stones, Otamendi, and Dinho at that position. Should City fail to sign another center-back, they will likely refuse to sell him to Barcelona this transfer window. If so, he would have great potential at 5.0.
Verdict: Solid investment if City keep him + Don't buy Koulibaly/Other CB
Stones (£5.0): I won't go too in-depth on this one. Stones' City career is likely coming to an end unless they decide to sell Garcia and keep Stones as their 4th center back. Even so, he wouldn't produce much value. If Stones goes to another top half team in England, he could have some potential. A loan move to Arsenal could be best for both the Gunners and the Sky Blues.
Verdict: Only viable if he gets a move to another top half Prem side.
Angelino (£?): Quick special mention to Angelino, who will likely leave the club this summer.
Verdict: Avoid
Koulibaly (£??): Technically not a City player, but after City's disappointing loss to Lyon, he should surely be a Sky Blue this transfer window. If so, he could provide value along-side Laporte. At 6.0 Koulibaly would stabilize City's defense and probably play more minutes than Laporte next season. As a result, he would likely be one of City's highest-scoring defenders.
Verdict: Depends on transfer and price
Midfielders:
De Bruyne: (£11.5): The first name on my FPL team. De Bruyne scored the most points amongst all players last season and is still priced less than some of them. The Belgian midfielder has been wonderful in his time at the Etihad and his attacking returns should only continue to be magnificent next season. With more determination than ever, and possibly another striker to assist, De Bruyne should offer amazing value next season. If you can only find room for one City player, make it KDB.
Verdict: Immense value, easy pick.
Sterling (£11.5): Sterling, if he could stay consistent, would have been the highest-scoring play in FPL last year. After an amazing start to the season, Sterling lost his form. Now with Sane gone and only a young Ferran Torres in to replace him, Sterling has more responsibility on his shoulders than ever before. His recent form and insane miss against Lyon may raise some red flags about the Englishman, but he should still provide the 2nd move value amongst City midfielders next season.
Verdict: Less value for money than KDB, but keep an eye out for how he starts the season
Mahrez (£8.5): Another player who gets trapped in Pep Roulette. Mahrez played brilliantly last season but with the emergence of Phil Foden (who likes to play out wide) and the signing of Ferran Torres, Mahrez may see another significant cut into his minutes next season. Should he start the season strong, however, he may be able to nail down a spot in Guardiola's team for the first few game weeks.
Verdict: Risky differential
Bernardo (£7.5): After his breakout season in 2018/19, hopes were high for Bernardo Silva. This season, however, he failed to impress and was largely omitted from the starting 11 for the games following the resumption of the league, including crucial Champions League games. With his desire to stay at Manchester City made public, Bernardo can offer amazing value-for-money if he can hit the ground running next season. The absence of David Silva now opens up the possibility of Bernardo playing centrally more often, which can only benefit the Portuguese international.
Verdict: Great potential but Pep doesn't seem to trust him in big games
Rodrigo (£5.5): Defensive midfielders never really provide great value in FPL.
Verdict: Avoid
Foden (£6.5): The English wonderkid that took the Premier League by storm following the resumption of the league looks set to fight for his chance to play consistent minutes. His start in the crucial second leg against Real Madrid further proves that Pep has confidence in the young man. If he can nail down a spot, either centrally or out on the wings, Foden can easily be the best asset to own given his price. Ambitious managers looking for a differential may look Foden's way, but that largely depends on what happens between now and the start of the season.
Verdict: Could be the gem of the season, although he could also largely spend time on the bench.
Gundogan (£5.5): See Rodrigo
Doyle (£4.5): Tommy Doyle is an exciting young prospect but he is a few seasons away from a real impact on the first team.
Verdict: Avoid
Torres (£7.0): Although he has been priced relatively cheaply for a City winger, I would urge caution with it comes to the Spaniard. Guardiola will most likely use the same approach he did when bringing Sane to the squad in that he will only really fully integrate the player after the end of the 2020/2021 season. If there was no redraft every year, Torres would be a good pick, but for this upcoming season, he shouldn't have much value.
Verdict: Wait for 2021/22 season
Braaf (£?): Braaf may be implemented into the game later this season, but he will likely fail to have any value once he is in. Along with Torres and Doyle, Braaf is one to watch out for a few seasons down the line.
Verdict: Wait a few seasons
Forwards:
Jesus (£9.5): A whole million cheaper than Aguero, Jesus offers a potential entryway into the City attack. However, I believe that there are better options given his price tag and his rotational with Aguero (or another striker) will likely hinder any breakout season for the Brazilian. If Jesus can improve on his end product, he will have value. As for now, however, it seems too risky to pick him given all the transfer rumors surrounding a new city striker.
Verdict: Keep an eye on him, but avoid for now.
Aguero (£10.5): Every year, Aguero scores an absurd number of goals given his fitness problems and rotation with Jesus. That being said, Aguero may face additional competition if City sign another forward. With 12 months left on the Argentine's contract, this may be the last season we have the forward in the game. In my opinion, his pricing makes him a huge risk this season, although I'm sure he would love to prove me wrong!
Verdict: Club favorite, but may not be an elite FPL option anymore for that price.
Messi (£??): Just kidding. Unless...
Thanks for taking the time to look at my guide, I will be updating it over time throughout pre-season. I would greatly appreciate it if you could either upvote or leave a comment with some feedback as this is my first ever preseason guide. If you disagree with any of my comments, send me a message as I would love another viewpoint on this.

1. Introduction

The Eagles have been a good model of consistency. Over the past 20 years, they have had just four losing seasons.
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It wasn’t always pretty, but Philly managed to secure the NFC East title with a 9-7 record last year. They closed out the regular season with a four-game winning streak to edge the Cowboys atop the division.
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Unfortunately, Carson Wentz exited the wildcard playoff game early and the team couldn’t overcome his absence in a 17-9 home loss to the Seahawks.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Carson Wentz needs to be applauded for his 2019 performance.
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He had to deal with numerous injuries to his receiving corps and yet, he led the team to a playoff spot and he finished with a career-high in passing yards with 4,039. He threw 27 TD passes versus 7 interceptions, while playing all 16 games for the first time since his rookie season in 2016.
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In the season finale, his top targets were Boston Scott, Dallas Goedert, Josh Perkins, Deontay Burnett and Greg Ward. Outside of Goedert, none is an established starter in the NFL. The Eagles still secured the NFC East title with a 34-17 road win in New York.
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Philadelphia selected Jalen Hurts late in the second round of this year’s draft. He transferred from Alabama to Oklahoma for his senior year since Tua Tagovailoa was projected to be the starter. Hurst was actually replacing Kyler Murray who had just been taken as the number one overall pick in the 2019 NFL draft by the Cards.
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Hurts did not disappoint in his lone season with the Sooners. He completed 237-of-340 passes (69.7%) with 3,851 passing yards, along with 32 TD passes and eight interceptions. He also rushed for 1,298 yards with 20 TDs on the ground!
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His weaknesses are an average accuracy, inconsistent decision-making and a tendency to take off as a runner too often (sometimes when a receiver was open). He is likely to be used as a gadget player by Doug Pederson this year.
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Nate Sudfeld will compete for the backup job. He missed the entire 2019 season due to a wrist injury he suffered during preseason. He was a sixth-round pick out of Indiana in the 2016 draft. He has attempted just 25 passes in the NFL in four years, so it’s hard to tell what to expect from him.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Miles Sanders’ rookie season was a resounding success. He led all rookies with 1,327 yards from scrimmage.
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He carried a heavier workload as the season went on. During the first eight games, he averaged 8.3 carries per game, as opposed to 14.1 over the last nine contests (including the playoff loss to the Seahawks).
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Jordan Howard’s injury at midseason contributed to the increased usage of Sanders in the backfield. With Howard gone to Miami, the sky’s the limit for second-round pick out of Penn State.
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Darren Sproles retired and Jay Ajayi was waived. That leaves the door wide open for third-year man Boston Scott. He flashed big time last year and unquestionably passed my eye test. The 5’6’’ back is very explosive.
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Scott made a name for himself in Week #17 as he had to step in for Sanders who sprained an ankle in the first quarter against the Giants. Scott went on to rack up 138 total yards and three touchdowns.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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This unit was decimated by injuries last year. DeSean Jackson pretty much played just one game, while Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor missed six and five games, respectively.
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Despite playing under his age-32 campaign, Jackson showed he still has field-stretching abilities in his lone meeting last year. He was spectacular with 8 catches for 154 yards and a couple of scores. He hasn’t played a full 16-game season very often in his career though.
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Jeffery is another aging receiver coming off a significant injury. He underwent Lisfranc surgery, which requires a long rehab period. He’s questionable for the start of training camp.
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Since two outstanding seasons in 2013 and 2014 with the Bears, Jeffery has missed four games per year on average, while showing signs of slowing down on the field as well. His 11.4 yards-per-catch average last year was a career low.
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To be honest, I feel like Jeffery’s time in the league is coming to an end soon. Lisfranc injuries can be tricky for wide receivers, and full recovery is even more difficult for guys above 30 years of age.
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Nelson Agholor was a younger WR who could have provided adequate depth, but he signed with the Raiders. The former first-rounder has not lived up to expectations, but he was still a decent pass catcher, albeit his drops were a big issue last year. Maybe a change of scenery will help rejuvenate his career.
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Philly drafted Jalen Reagor with the #21 pick overall last April. He’s a smallish deep threat who is at his best on straight routes. He was good with contested catches, but will it still be the case in the NFL given his size? That’s a big question mark.
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Reagor opened a lot of eyes by scoring eight touchdowns as a freshman with TCU after being a high recruit out of high school. He followed up with a great 72-1061-9 receiving line as a sophomore.
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Reagor’s numbers dropped quite a bit as a junior (43-611-5), but you can attribute that to having a freshman QB at the helm. He’s an electrifying player who can take it to the house every time he touches the ball.
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The competition for the number three role is also likely to involve Greg Ward and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. These two guys have had completely different paths before making it to the NFL.
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Ward went undrafted before joining the AAF. He eventually was added to the Eagles’ practice squad, and later on promoted to the 53-man roster until a depleted receiving corps forced him onto the field.
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Meanwhile, Arcega-Whiteside had more of a “conventional” journey by being drafted in the second-round of the 2019 draft.
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Such resumes would suggest Arcega-Whiteside would be the superior wideout, but that’s not what we saw on the field. He only caught 10-of-22 targets for a disappointing 45% catch rate. He was rarely targeted down the stretch, despite the numerous injuries at the position.
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On the other hand, Ward filled in admirably late in the season. Over the final four meetings, including the playoff game, he caught 20-of-25 targets (an 80% catch rate). He clearly deserves a shot as a top reserve for the upcoming season.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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The Eagles have a nice duo at the tight end position with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert.
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Ertz is a true warrior. He hasn’t missed more than two games in each of his first seven season in the league. Last year, he played with two rib fractures one week after lacerating his kidney. Talk about a tough guy.
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His numbers are also staggering. His lowest figures in terms of receptions and receiving yards over the past five years are 74 and 816. That’s truly remarkable! Please note that he’ll be turning 30 years old during the season.
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Just like Ertz, Goedert is also a former second-rounder. However, he is four years younger. He caught 58 passes for 607 yards and 5 TDs, all career-highs. He was targeted 4 times per game on average before the team’s bye week versus an average of 7.9 for the remainder of the year. Granted, injuries to other targets probably boosted his numbers, but he still developed nice chemistry with Wentz.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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The Eagles have a heck of an offensive line.
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You cannot blame Jason Kelce for anything over the past five years. He hasn’t missed any start, while consistently being one of the top centers in the league. As a matter of fact, he was rated as the #1 center in the NFL according to PFF grades last year. He’s now 32 years old.
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Left tackle Jason Peters has been just as good as Kelce. He was nominated to nine Pro Bowls in his career and he finished as the number 6 tackle in the league with his 83.4 PFF mark. Unfortunately, the team decided to let the 38-year old hit the free agency market. EDIT: he was re-signed three days ago (this article was written several weeks ago). He is projected to play guard instead of tackle.
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Peters will be replaced with 2019 first-round pick, Andre Dillard. Is he ready to take on the full-time job? It remains to be seen, but it will be difficult to fill Peters’ shoes.
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As for Lane Johnson, the right tackle finished as the 3rd-best tackle in the league based on the PFF grading system. He’s been very good throughout his seven-year career; the former #4 overall pick has not disappointed at all!
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Brandon Brooks also had a huge 2019 season! He ended the year as the top guard in the NFL with a jaw-dropping 92.9 PFF mark. Much like Lane Johnson, Brooks is another player above 30 years old who’s been reliable his entire career.
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Left guard Isaac Seumalo started all 16 games for the first time of his career. He’s the one that received the lowest grades on this OL, but finishing 17th out of 81 guards is nothing to be ashamed of! The former third-round pick from the 2016 draft is not as talented as his colleagues, but you could do worse than having him as one of your starters.
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The team lost good depth with the departure of Halapoulivaati Vaitai to Detroit. The 2019 season was clearly his best year; it would have been nice to retain him but he signed a huge contract with the Lions.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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When comparing the upcoming 2020 season with last year, there are some positives and some negatives.
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Let’s discuss the negative stuff first. I do expect a downgrade on the offensive line. They played at an extremely high level last year with four guys finishing among the 6 players at their respective position (based on PFF rankings). That’s unlikely to happen again, especially with three linemen aged 30 years or above.
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Also, second-year man Andre Dillard has good potential, but it will be difficult to match Jason Peters’ 2019 performance. I do expect a drop-off here.
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At quarterback and tight end, the situation remains stable.
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At the running back position, losing Jordan Howard to free agency won’t hurt too much with the emergence of electrifying Boston Scott. Also, Miles Sanders is expected to take a leap in his sophomore season.
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Finally, how could you not expect better production from the WR group? They were hit by the injury bug a lot last year. Agholor’s departure is a moderate blow; getting DeSean Jackson back is a bonus! Hopefully, speedy rookie Jalen Reagor can provide a spark to an offense that sorely missed game breakers last year.
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The Eagles offense scored the 12th-highest number of points last year. My final conclusion, based on the arguments above, is that I expect similar production in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Fletcher Cox is an animal. Plain and simple.
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Despite posting his second-lowest sack output of his illustrious eight-year career, he still graded as the 4th-best interior defenders in the NFL based on PFF rankings. On average, he has recorded 6 sacks per year (he only got 3.5 last year)
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He has also been very durable; he’s missed just three games out 128. He still has good years to come at age 29.
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Tim Jernigan was a decent starter next to Cox, but he clearly wasn’t needed on the team anymore after the Eagles signed stud DT Javon Hargrave. The former Steeler showed steady improvement in each of his first four years in the NFL. His 83.4 PFF mark last year put him in the 8th spot out of 114 DLs.
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With Hargrave entering his prime years and Fletcher Cox being a perennial beast, good luck running the ball inside the tackles against the Eagles in 2020.
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After playing three years in Indy, Hassan Ridgeway had a below-average season in his first year with the Eagles. He’s more of a rotational player, whom you hope won’t be needed as a starter.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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Brandon Graham is 32 years old, but he refuses to slow down. He led the team with 8.5 sacks last year, and he has averaged six sacks over an eight-year period!
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The guy also finds a way to stay on the field. Can you believe he has missed a single game in eight years! He’s been consistently good and remains a force, both against the run and rushing the passer.
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Derek Barnett is a former first-rounder coming off a career-high in sacks with 6.5. However, his 2019 PFF grade was the lowest of his three-year stint in the NFL and he finished as the number 83 edge defender out of 107 qualifiers. He’s an “okay” player.
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Vinny Curry played 38% of the snaps last year, but it does not appear like he will be back with the team. At the time of writing, he was still a free agent. He did pick up five sacks last year, but teams seem reluctant to sign him because he’ll be playing his age-32 campaign. He actually played pretty well when called upon.
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With Curry gone, the team must hope Josh Sweat will elevate his game. The 2018 fourth-round selection posted his first four sacks of his career last year, but his 62.5 overall PFF mark ranked him as the 76th-best edge defender out of 107 guys.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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After playing four years in Buffalo and four years in Philly, Nigel Bradham was cut by the Eagles, mainly for cap reasons. He provided average play at the LB position; he was good in coverage, but he was a liability defending the run.
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The team also lost Kamu Grugier-Hill, who signed with the Dolphins. You could characterize him as a decent player, albeit far from being great.
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That leaves the team pretty thin at the position.
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Nathan Gerry is the lone 2019 starter that is still with the team. He ranked as the 34th-best linebacker out of 89 players. He does not offer much upside, though. It would be stunning to see him crack the top 25 someday.
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Can Duke Riley and/or T.J Edwards crack the starting lineup? Neither seem to be an up-and-coming star. Riley was acquired for peanuts prior to last year and he played 35 snaps. As for Edwards, he was an undrafted rookie out of Wisconsin that did well in limited time last year. He proved to be stout against the run.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Philly’s back end has been revamped for the upcoming 2020 season.
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The Eagles signed one of the best slot corners in the league: Nickell Robey-Coleman. He has received consistently good grades from ProFootballFocus over the past four years. At 5’8’’ he is pretty small, but you couldn’t tell from the quality of his game. He’s a nice addition.
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Philly also acquired Darius “Big Play” Slay, who played the first seven years of his career with the Lions. He had a down year in 2019, but I’m not worried he can rebound in a new environment. He’s been covering opponent’s top receivers for a while in this league, and he’s done a good job at it. He has 19 career interceptions.
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Ronald Darby’s career has been plagued with injuries recently and he was let go during the offseason. His PFF grade took an enormous drop last year, all the way from a respectable 70.6 in 2018 down to an abysmal 44.8 last year. He signed a one-year deal with the Redskins.
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Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox are still on the team, but neither has proven to be an impactful contributor. Both graded as very below-average corners in 2019.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod both played the entire 2019 season. They ranked as the 32nd- and 52nd-best out of a bunch of 87 safeties.
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The organization and Jenkins couldn’t agree on a deal, so the Eagles had to let him go after six very successful seasons. He picked off 11 passes during his six-year stint in Philly. He signed with the Saints, with which he spent the first five seasons of his career. Even though he wasn’t getting any younger, his present will be missed.
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McLeod’s 2019 PFF grade was the lowest he had obtained over the past five years, but he still did a decent job.
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Jalen Mills will be one piece of the puzzle in replacing Jenkins. But let’s face the reality: he has been pretty awful throughout his four-year career, except 2017 where he did better.
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Another option will be newly acquired Will Parks, who is coming over from Denver. However, he’s clearly not a long-term solution either. He’s pretty versatile, but he’s a below-average player.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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This unit was upgraded quite a bit during the offseason at two positions, but it also suffered a severe downgrade at a couple others.
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First, acquiring Javon Hargrave to team up with Fletcher Cox on the interior of the line was big! At CB, getting Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman will provide much needed help at a position that has caused headaches for years in Philly.
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Unfortunately, the defense lost its best safety when Malcolm Jenkins signed with the Saints. Also, even though none of them was a true difference maker, losing linebackers Nigel Bradham and Kamu Grugier-Hill creates a hole.
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Since the team acquired some big time players while losing good/average players, I envision a small improvement. In 2019, the Eagles finished in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed per game (15th out of 32 teams). I envision Philly finishing around the #10-#13 spot this year.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Eagles are expected to win 9.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Eagles won more or less than 9.5 games.

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Here are the results:
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 9.5 WINS	42.3%	FanDuel	-105	-17.4%
UNDER 9.5 WINS	57.7%	Pinnacle	-103	+13.7%

Tip: Bet UNDER 9.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.7%
Rank: 19th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -136
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Eagles’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: +2 vs BAL, -10 vs CIN, -2.5 vs DAL, -4 vs LAR, 0 vs NO, -5 vs NYG, -2 vs SEA, -10.5 vs WAS.
• ROAD: +1.5 @ ARI, 0 @ CLE, +2 @ DAL, +2.5 @ GB, -3.5 @ NYG, +1.5 @ PIT, +5.5 @ SF, -6 @ WAS.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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I invite you to take a look at my other 31 NFL team previews! Good information if you are involved in fantasy football and/or if you want to be up-to-date on player movement and teams' strengths and weaknesses (for betting purposes)!
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Cheers,
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Professor MJ

The year is 2017. Top scientists have finally cracked the ability to stop ageing, and the world rejoices. The discovery prompts an immediate FIFA investigation into exactly what this means for world football from now on. How will the careers come and go when every team can just preserve their best stars? How will the next Messi break through? The Qatar FA suggest restricting it to only Qatari players, a motion that's only narrowly defeated. In unrelated news, a bunch of mysterious Qatari bank accounts are seized the day before the vote. Eventually, a compromise is decided upon between. Only those players who’ve proven themselves to be in it for the sport, and their team, can use it. The players who have stuck with their team through thick and thin, who’ve turned down bigger money offers to stay where they are. One-Club Men. However, should their loyalty ever waiver, and they choose to leave, those players will lose their right to an everlasting career, and have to face the advance years once again. Who will remain loyal the longest? Who will ride out the lowest of lows to stay at their lifelong club?
Unfortunately for those of you hoping I’ve found a secret miracle, that’s just the best nonsense I could come up with to frame this scenario. In less dramatic terms, using FM 2017, I'm going to select 50 one-club men from the top 5 leagues and de-age them to around 22. Every 5 years I'll de-age them down to 22 again, unless they abandon their loyalty. I'll also be adjusting everyone's contract to expire in 2020 to make it equal, and undoing international retirements where necessary. Nothing overly complicated, but I’m expecting this one to run a long long time if I’m going to have everyone leave, so I’m good with it not being too complicated.
^{Reddit side note! It's me again. Some may remember my experiments from ages ago. I'm back and writing again, but as you can probably tell, with a new name and website. If you want to see this post with much better formatting, all the images, and everyone's profile at the end, go here to read it in full: link You can stay here if you prefer though!}
So who actually qualifies for this? I've restricted it to players from the Top 5 leagues of England, Italy, Spain, Germany and France, and only included those that have been at their clubs the longest. As well as the genuine candidates like Messi and Totti, loaned out players like Lahm qualify, as do those like Iniesta who haven't left in FM 2017, and even those that have left in-game, but are known for their careers at one club. Buffon is a good example of the latter. I've included a link to an image with all 5 players here: link
With all this loyalty around, I wanted to mix it up a bit by adding in one final player. Someone completely opposite to everyone picked so far, the anti-one-club man, the journeyman of all journeymen. And after some research, I came up with the perfect candidate. Sebastián Abreu, a man who in his career has played at an impressive 29 different teams in 11 different countries, setting a Guinness world record along the way. Abreu will receive the same treatment as the loyal players, except it won’t stop when he moves team. I want him to move around more, spread his wings, see how many teams he can collect over an illustrious career.
That’s enough explaining for now. Should be pretty clear what’s going on, just a bunch of footballers never getting old. Time to get things rolling and see who eliminates themselves. Who can stick it out the longest, who will become THE one-club man?

2016/17

With our younger one club men unleashed on the world, many of them attract instant attention from new clubs. For a while it stays quiet and looks like the first transfer window may pass without incident. Only a few loans crop up... until Javi López because the first man to fall. With Espanyol not meeting his standards, he makes a £2.4M trip down the coast to join Valencia. He proves to be the only summer casualty by the time the window slams shut.
January brings the winter window, and the Premier League clubs start to sniff around, ready to throw bags of cash at unsuspecting players. It doesn’t take long before the next two players are reeled in by money and lose their eternal youth. First Marcel Schmelzer in a £20.5M move to Liverpool, followed by Bruno joining moneybags Man City. By the end of the window, Nacho also heads to the north of England, joining rivals Man United. I’m not sure if any of them have realised how damn cold it is up there. That window swiftly ends, settling the bottom 4 finishers in the competition.
Returning to the world of actual football results briefly, and there aren’t many shocks to be seen. Man City finish 6th, Everton get relegated and Borussia Mönchengladbach reach the Champions League Semi-Finals. A few players see their team relegated, as Werder Bremen, Caen and Freiburg go down, so there could be a few casualties once that disappointment has set in. But all in all, the footballing world has coped just fine.
Loyal Players Remaining: 46
Abreu Club Count: 23 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: None

2017/18

With everyone’s transfer budgets warmed up, it doesn’t take long for the action to get back underway. The previous season has barely finished before Chris Solly trades in his morals for a Premier League move to Norwich. Sergio Álvarez joins him in England, making the slightly odd move to Bournemouth before a big £52M move sees Koke trade loyalty for a big move to Man City. That’s the most surprising move so far, as I expected many of the players at top clubs to stick around. The final two transfers of the window take us to sunny Spain, where both Xabi Prieto and Mario become massive glory hunters, trading in their life long clubs for Atletico Madrid and Barcelona respectively. Javi López, having left Espanyol to join Valencia last year, immediately realises his mistake and rejoins Espanyol. It’s too little too late though, his status as a one-club man is already ruined.
The winter window comes and goes without even a hint of action, so things may already be starting to quieten down. Over in Brazil, Sebastián Abreu has his contract with Bangu come to an end after a good season but fails to attract any new suitors before the European season ends.
Around the world, things keep ticking on relatively normally. Watford take a surprising FA Cup win despite finishing rock bottom of the league, meaning they’ll have European nights alongside their Championship campaign. The loyalty of Seube, Höfler and Bargfrede is rewarded, as Caen, Bremen and Freiburg are immediately promoted back to the top tier. Las Palmas head in the opposite direction, which causes David García to hand in an immediate transfer request. The Spaniard could very well be the next player to go.
Loyal Players Remaining: 41
Abreu Club Count: 23 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Watford (FA Cup)

2018/19

My suggestion that things may be quietening down is immediately disproved by the biggest move so far. Bayern Munich legend Philipp Lahm makes a huge £82M transfer to Manchester City, throwing away all he’d built up at Bayern so far. But it doesn't end there, as 2 more huge transfers are finalised right after. First Claudio Marchisio drops Juventus, clearly not happy with them losing the title to AC Milan, and moves to Real Madrid. Then Daniele De Rossi trades in Roma for Barcelona. Whilst both have moved in real life, I didn’t expect either to fall so early in this, being icons at such huge clubs. A little later, David García makes his predicted move away from relegated Las Palmas, opting to stay in Spain with Osasuna. And then on the final day of the window, one last move. David Zurutuza decides the Premier League is more to his taste and joins Noble at West Ham. Javi López continues his tour of Spain, realising rejoining Espanyol doesn’t earn him back everlasting youth, and so heads to Sevilla instead. Currently, he’s moved around more than the specific journeyman player I chose to actually move around. Talking of, Abreu does find a new contract, heading back to Uruguay to join River Plate Montevideo.
The winter transfer window is again mostly quiet, with very little potential action. There are still some transfers though, as Robin Knoche becomes the 15th person out, heading to Borussia Dortmund. Then a legend moves on, as Iker Casillas decides that barely getting any game time behind Keylor Navas isn’t worth it, and so joins Monaco for a mere £11M. I guess you can't escape the real world after all.
The summer of 2018 means a World Cup, a tournament which regularly creates bizarre results in Football Manager. This year is no exception, as the likes of Italy, Belgium and Argentina fall in the group stages, before South Korea beat both Germany and France in the knockouts. The final between Brazil and Croatia proves 100% less heartbreaking than the real 2018 final for the Croatians, as they become champions of the world. In domestic football, Man United take all the English trophies on offer in a Quadruple, whilst Freiburg find themselves relegated yet again, as do Montpellier.
Loyal Players Remaining: 34
Abreu Club Count: 24 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Croatia (World Cup)

2019/20

Another season, another transfer window, another set of swirling rumours around our one-club men. Borussia Dortmund manage to steal away another of our competitors from a German rival, taking Timo Horn early in the window. Having been relegated yet again last season, Nicolas Höfler decides enough is enough and leaves Freiburg for Hertha Berlin. Over in Italy, and Chievo Legend Sergio Pellissier finally caves, leaving his relegation-threatened lifelong team for European battlers Fiorentina. But that's all the entertainment I can offer, no big signings this time around I’m afraid. Let's go see what Javi López is up to instead. His merry-go-round of clubs continues yet again, moving over to Deportivo de La Coruña in the latest of his ever-decreasing value of transfers.
January retains its typical bleak and dull atmosphere, with no sign of action whatsoever until the final day of the window. Hugo Mallo decides to try and add to his trophy cabinet and heads to Man United. Not the worst career move to throw away eternal life for considering their dominance right now. And with his departure, the total number of players that we've lost hits a nice round 20.
In the Premier League, Man United claim their 4th title in a row, exerting total dominance over everyone. But where one dominance rises, another falls, with Dortmund claiming the Bundesliga to knock Bayern off their perch. The shock of the season comes in the Coupe de France, where 3rd tier LB Châteauroux knock out Lyon, Auxerre and PSG before falling to Caen in the semi-finals. With Monaco having fallen to 4th tier SA Spinalien, Caen beat an easier opposition of RC Lens in the final, leading to Seube lifting the teams first-ever Coupe de France. Not bad for a player I expected to never lift a trophy. On a less joyous note, Höfler having left relegated Freiburg, sees his new team Hertha relegated immediately too. It seems there is no escaping the 2. Bundesliga!
On the record front, Gianluigi Buffon sets a huge benchmark, breaking the 200 cap mark for Italy. With no-one else close to him, he’ll stay the leader for a long time. Messi also breaks a boundary, climbing through 400 league goals during his career at Barcelona. Like Buffon, he’s way clear of any competitor, and unless a miracle happens that sees him abandon Barcelona, I can’t see anyone catching him soon.
Loyal Players Remaining: 30
Abreu Club Count: 24 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Caen (Coupe de France)

2020/21

2020 arrives, and with it, two important points arrive too. Firstly, everyone gets de-aged for the first time in this experiment. The 20 that have left get to watch from a distance thinking about what could have been. Second, the initial contracts are set to expire, so anyone that hasn’t re-signed will out the door. Which is exactly what happens to Víctor Valdés. Having barely appeared for Barcelona since his return, he leaves the club on a free and heads to the southern French coast to join Marseille. A day later and someone else leaves France, as Romain Danzé who decides one de-ageing is enough and moves to Schalke. Tony Hibbert also struggled for games at Everton despite his new youthful look, and so he walks out the door. He opts for Aston Villa, who to my great surprise have sunk to a mid-table League 1 team. Feeling left out, Spain joins in, with Oier Sanjurjo departing Osasuna and moving to Villarreal. The window is then capped by a bizarre final free transfer. Despite appearing regularly, Xavi isn’t offered a new contract by Barcelona. Man City can’t quite believe their luck and snap up the Spanish wizard a few days before the window shuts.
Winter brings with it just one transfer in its usual action-heavy way. Roberto Torres leaves Osasuna, making a £35.5M switch to Atletico. I’m not sure whether Atletico thought they were getting a different de-aged Torres because that can only be described as an overpayment. Either way, that means we've now lost over half the competitors.
Euro 2020 passes, and Croatia prove their World Cup victory was no fluke, becoming both champions of the World, and champions of Europe. On the Continental front, things have been fairly predictable so far, at least until this years Europa League. Hoffenheim escape a tough group and go all the way to win the entire thing. Not bad for a team that barely qualified in the first place. Oh, and Messi wins a little thing called the Ballon d’Or for the 10th time. I think he’s only just getting started.
Loyal Players Remaining: 24
Abreu Club Count: 24 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Hoffenheim (Europa League)

2021/22

The 21/22 season begins with two transfers on the first day. Loïc Perrin makes his way to the Premier League to join Leicester. But that's a minor splash compared to the other move, as after 768 appearances and 302 goals, Francesco Totti leaves Roma. It seems wrong to see it, but he’ll now be wearing a Man United kit. Dortmund continue their run of stealing loyalty, this time bringing Tony Jantschke into the fold. Another contract is run to the end, forcing Álex Bergantiños out of Deportivo without much choice, before being picked up by Cagliari. Mikel González opts to end his time at Real Sociedad, joining Pellissier over at Fiorentina. And as August comes to a close, it looks like Totti may be the only big departure. That is until Gianluigi Buffon decides to call time on his Juventus career. It’s an odd move, with the legend going sorta sideways from a regular starting Juventus spot to Bayern Munich. But there’s no going back now, as his 636 league appearance career with the Italians comes to a close. Two legends down in one window.
No season is complete without a single winter signing to warrant an entire separate paragraph, and this season is no different. Sergi Roberto moves away from Barcelona, in a £24M move to French giants PSG. A good way to guarantee yourself plenty of titles I guess. Abreu also makes a winter move, adding Guarani in the Brasilian second tier to his collection.
Roberto’s decision proves to be a good one, as PSG go on to claim their 10th one in a row. Not many surprises elsewhere, although Real Oviedo get close to pulling off a shock in the Copa del Rey. The second tier team beat Osasuna, Barcelona and Sevilla on the way to the final, but ultimately Real Madrid prove a step too far. Elsewhere everything is won by a team you’d probably expect. Exciting stuff.
Loyal Players Remaining: 17
Abreu Club Count: 25 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: None

2022/23

With the pool of players rapidly decreasing, very few of the crew are even wanted by other clubs anymore. Perhaps deterred by their steadfast loyalty? A few moves do still happen though, so we’re not dead yet. Firstly Anthony Lopes gets fed up of PSG dominating his league and moves to AC Milan for a better shot at a trophy. It’s not long before that story is forgotten, as the biggest transfer fee in the competition so far is dropped. Andrés Iniesta is stolen away from Barcelona, in a huge £86M move to Man United. The midfield maestro fell 2 appearances short of 600 league games for Barcelona, but with his new £300K per-week contract it’s not hard to guess why. That proves to be all the action for the summer window, with no-one willing to top that huge move.
After half a season of hearing their noisy neighbours gloating about their star signing, Man City snap. And if there’s one thing City are good at, it’s splashing the cash. In probably the easiest negotiation over fee Barcelona has ever had, Sergio Busquets makes a £95M move to the sky blues. Yeh, that’ll show United. Once again no-one wants to get in the middle of the awkward Manchester squabble, and the winter transfer closes with a whimper.
The second World Cup of this experiment comes and goes. This time all the giants make it safely through the Group Stages, but it’s Africa that really excels. Morocco make the knockouts, Egypt battle through to the Quarter Finals, but Nigeria come out best. They beat South Korea and Argentina before falling valiantly to France in the Semi-Finals. A 1-0 victory of Italy does see them finish in an impressive 3rd place, becoming the first African team to finish in the top 3 of the World Cup. France win the title on penalties after a deceivingly action-filled 0-0 draw with Spain. The domestic scene follows that with a similar lack of real shocks. In the Carabao Cup, Bournemouth beat Arsenal, Chelsea and Man United on the way to lifting the trophy. But it’s the lesser Cup, so outside of Bournemouth no-one really cares. PSG finally have their grip on the Ligue 1 broken, as Casillas leads Monaco to a fantastic title. Otherwise, all the league titles and cups fall to teams you’d expect them too. Another thrilling year.
Loyal Players Remaining: 14
Abreu Club Count: 25 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Bournemouth (Carabao Cup)

2023/24

Literally nothing happens. Thomas Kessler decides that no team can ignore his existence for 20 seasons in a row and get away with it, leaving Köln to join Trabzonspor. So as I said, literally nothing happens. Even Javi López moving to yet another club would be more interesting than that.
The same applies to the footballing season. Asides from Casillas captaining Monaco to a Champions League title, or Atletico winning the title again, exactly 10 years after their last win, everything is frustratingly normal. And even those two events are hardly shocks.
Before I start to lose hope, there are a few interesting moves over the last few years from the losing group that are worth highlighting. First season mover Bruno didn’t make the impact he hoped and found himself moving to the lovely Stoke. Robin Knoche barely received any playtime at Dortmund and found himself cast out to Dinamo Zagreb. Even in League 1, Tony Hibbert could barely get any game time at Villa and so moved on the Scunthorpe in League 2. But the winner of the oddest move has to be Zurutuza, who somehow manage to pull off a move to Liverpool after West Ham found themselves relegated, only make a few disappointing performances, before being released on a free to join Al-Arabi in Qatar. Not quite the career he was anticipating when joining the Premier League I bet.
Loyal Players Remaining: 13
Abreu Club Count: 25 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: None

2024/25

The summer transfer window arrives for another season, and with it finally comes a huge deal! Javi López has found yet another club! Hooray! As for actual competitors, absolutely no movement whatsoever. Even from Abreu, who’s been at Guarani for 2.5 years now. Manceau, Lewington and Seube complain to their managers about playing time or relegation, but none of them actually make a move anywhere. So our final 13 will add another 5 years onto their career length.
There are some fun statistics from our 51 worth mentioning at this point. Buffon leads the way with both total league appearances (935) and international caps (259). His caps are at a point where they’re too high for the game to display, as the value is stored as an unsigned 8-bit integer, and so has rolled over to just show 3. Most appearances for a single club goes to Dean Lewington however, who thanks to being a regular sits at 857 league appearances for the MK Dons (or 889 if you include Wimbledon). In the goals department, the winner is obvious. With almost 500 league goals, 100 international goals and 14 Ballon d’Or awards, Messi sits on top of everyone. On the international scene, he’s run close by Müller and the fast-approaching Kane, but for league goals, it’s not even close.
2024 brings with it a Euro tournament, which doesn’t provide much in the way of surprises, but brings with it some exciting high scoring matches. All ending in a 4-3 victory for a Thomas Müller led Germany over neighbours Netherlands. Which I’m sure went down very well. The domestic scene decides to spring a few shocks though. In Serie A, Roma claim an impressive title thanks to main striker Iheanacho, their first since 2001. The German and French cups provide surprise winners, in the form of Hertha Berlin and Dijon. Both cap an impressive run by beating their respective league winners, Bayern and Monaco. Even the continental tournaments turn up too. First Monaco cement their place as a top power in football by winning their second Champions League in a row. That coming a week after the best win there could possibly be. Tottenham win the Europa League! Screw the other stuff, that last part is all I need!
Loyal Players Remaining: 13
Abreu Club Count: 25 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Dijon (Coupe de France), Hertha Berlin (DFB Pokal)

At this point though it’s fair to say that the competition results are more interesting than the movements of the players. Which is the perfect signal that things need to speed up a little bit. So from now on, updates will be every 5 years, which lines up perfectly with player age resets, letting us see who has made it to the next checkpoint.

2025-2030

Another round of de-ageing hits, and you’d think that would incite some interest in our final 13. Instead, it’s a ghost town. We do have an immediate dropout though, as Nicolas Seube finally gets fed up with his lack of playtime at Caen and heads for Panionios in Greece. A year later the situation is repeated. I’m not entirely sure what his unhappiness was about, but Iker Muniain decides he’s had enough of Athletic Club and moves to Hamburger SV. At least he left on exactly 100 goals for Athletic though, a nice round number. With 11 left, a standoff to reach the top 10 ensues. For 3 years no-one budges in their show of loyalty, until in 2029… Dean Lewington leaves for Derby County on a free. It’s a huge move, with Lewington becoming the first man to break through 1000 league appearances for a single club before leaving. But he’s moved on now, and it won’t be long before that record is broken. That move means we’re left with our final 10 contestants. Terry, Iraola, Messi, Susaeta, Noble, Jourdren, Müller, Kane, Manceau and Bargfrede have secured a top 10 spot, and now all that’s left to do is fight it out for number 1.
Over in Brazil, our anti-one-club man continues his journey, although it remains in Brazil for the moment. Only 2 clubs are added to his count, with a long stay at Atletico Goianiense followed by a £2M move to top tier Coritiba. I’m kind of hoping he starts to make enough waves in the Brazilian league to move to Europe and add some new countries to his history.
Those that fell before the first de-ageing are retiring, finishing off their magnificent, or in some cases very un-magnificent, careers (as losers). Javi López finishes his fine anti-loyalty tour around Spain with 7 transfers to his name. Schmelzer, Nacho, Solly, Álvarez, Koke, Mario, Prieto, Marchisio, De Rossi, David García, Zurutuza, Knoche, Höfler, Pellissier, Mallo, Horn and Hibbert end their careers. Many, such as Nacho, Horn and De Rossi stay just as committed to their new clubs as they did their old, finishing out their careers after just a single transfer. Of the pensioners, Sergio Pellissier manages to rack up the most career league appearances and goals, at 894 and 246, although that’s largely thanks to a huge head start. De Rossi dominates on the international scene, earning a whopping 197 caps over his 30-year career. Naturally, all those records will be blown out the water once the next group start retiring, but it’s nice to have some benchmarks.
Around the world, plenty has gone on worth hearing about. The Netherlands claim their first-ever World Cup win, beating Brazil in the final, whilst in the Euro’s Germany win their second tournament in a row. The Gold Cup throws up a few interesting results too, as first, the Mexico B team win it, with their A team tied up in the Confederations Cup. Then 4 years later Canada take the title, only the second time in their history. Over in Italy, Lazio find themselves relegated as the league starts to shake itself up a bit. But other than that, domestic football remains relatively unspectacular. Oh except… TOTTENHAM WINNING THE LEAGUE. Didn’t even have to reset it and we won it before Arsenal did. North London is very much Lilywhite now, suck it Gooners!
Loyal Players Remaining: 10
Abreu Club Count: 27 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Tottenham (Premier League)

2030-2035

Another 5 years pass and to start with it looks like the top 10 are going to hold firm. Eventually though, the temptation of money proves too much for one man. That man is Geoffrey Jourdren who trades in his starting slot at Montpellier for a cosy backup contract at PSG. Then comes… dead silence. Not even a rumour, or an unhappy player. No-one even hints at leaving for the next 4 years, which means we end the period with nine players on the books. The real waiting game has begun. Even our journeyman Abreu is moving in a very slow way, as a five year Coritiba stint finishes with a free transfer to Red Bull Brasil. I think my hopes for a European move have died.
At least there are a lot of retirements to run through. Bruno, Lahm, Casillas, Valdés, Danzé, Oier, Xavi, Torres, Perrin, Jantschke, Bergantiños, González, Roberto, Iniesta and Busquets hang up their playing boots. That does leave us without some noted legends, with Lahm, Casillas, Iniesta and Busquets reaching 200 caps for their country. You’d think Spain would have won more with that golden generation. Casillas and Xavi also both hit 1000 league appearances thanks to a strong head start before the experiment. But it’s Andrés Iniesta who is the most loyal of the bunch, racking up nearly 600 appearances for his original club before departing.
Five years leaves plenty of time for interesting results once again. England take a World Cup win, which is always a sign of the apocalypse, only made more bizarre by Scotland making the semi-finals in the same competition. Portugal take the other title in that period, whilst the Euros also see a surprise winner in Switzerland. France provides the biggest shock at club level, as Lille come from nowhere to win Ligue 1, and then immediately revert back to mid-table once again. Otherwise, the time belongs to Manchester City. The oil bar… sky blues take 4 out of 5 titles in both the Premier League and Champions League, with all that cash flinging finally paying off.
Loyal Players Remaining: 9
Abreu Club Count: 28 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: England (World Cup), Lille (Ligue 1)

2035-40

With just nine players left, once again we get a transfer fairly early on in the period. Early as in the first transfer window, which makes me wonder why they waited so long. Anyway, Mark Noble has had his patience tested by West Ham’s yoyoing between the Premier League and Championship a bit too much and finally caves. He makes a £20M move to Burnley, who… are doing the exact same thing. Not sure that was the brightest idea. Like the previous 5 years though, one transfer is all we get. None of the others move, despite some pretty heavy unhappiness from Bargfrede and Manceau. Abreu keeps up his trail, running out his contract with Red Bull Brasil and opting for Chapecoense to reach 29 clubs in his career.
With very few moving recently, that also means less and less are retiring, as just 7 ex-competitors leave the game. Totti, Buffon, Lopes, Kessler, Seube, Muniain and Lewington call time on their football life. The fact they all stuck with it for so long means there’s so impressive stats between them. Totti racked up 1154 league appearances, with 768 at Roma. Dean Lewington, after leaving MK Dons with 1003 appearances finished with a total of 1287. Italian legend Gianluigi Buffon finished with a whopping 1307 league appearances, but perhaps more impressively, 334 international caps. But the single most surprising statistic goes to Thomas Kessler. Despite barely playing in Germany he manages to notch a grand total of 7 goals after his move to Turkey. Maybe if he’d been a striker he’d have actually played at Koln. Oh and Seube ends his career Greek. Because why not.
As per every time, a quick look around the world’s results is needed. Spain win back the World Cup titles, whilst Italy take a Euro win. Argentina, Mexico and Australia claim all their continents international trophies in the window, so no massive surprises there. The domestic world isn’t exactly littered with shocks either. Brescia win a Coppa Italia, and Nîmes Olympique grab 4 top 5 finishes in a row in France, but there’s not really much to shout about. I think it’s best to just get on with the next de-ageing.
Loyal Players Remaining: 8
Abreu Club Count: 29 clubs in 10 countries
Odd Winners: Brescia (Coppa Italia)

2040-45

Down to 8 now, so it’s getting tougher. And a lot slower, so slow in fact that not a single transfer in our group happens in five years. For a moment I was excited to see Manceau at Recreativo de Huelva, but that was just a loan. So I was back to being crushed. On the plus side, Abreu makes some huge steps. He adds not just 1, but 2 new countries to his history! The first is Portugal, in a huge step up to join Braga. As usual, it’s just until his contract ends, before he moves on to Frankfurt in the Bundesliga. He’s hardly setting Europe alight but I don’t care, he’s actually moving!
There’s only one retiree to talk about too, as pretty much everyone has already gone. Geoffrey Jourdren finishes up with 925 total league appearances. It probably could have been a bit more, if he’d not spent 10 years of his career being a backup at PSG and Bayern. On a far more interesting note, Terry breaks through 1500 career league appearances. Kane also hits 256 international goals, which results in the number resetting to 0 just like caps. So the game has him on 96 caps with 11 goals, when the actual numbers are a stunning 352 caps with 267 goals.
Having seen my disappointment last time around, the world decides to liven things up. Denmark become both Champions of the World and Champions of Europe in 2042 and 2040, although they lose the European title to Germany 4 years later. At the continental level, the Champions League stays on track, but the Europa League brings some bizarre winners into the mix. Nîmes Olympique, Real Sociedad, Leicester and Bristol City all win a trophy. It seems Mark Noble finally made a right move transferring to Bristol City, as the club is now a strong top 6 Premier League side. Manceau wins a Coupe de France at Angers, but it’s still Nîmes making waves, forming a big three with PSG and Monaco. It may not be long before either Nîmes or Bristol City win their league, which is not something I expected to be saying.
Loyal Players Remaining: 8
Abreu Club Count: 31 clubs in 12 countries
Odd Winners: Nîmes Olympique/Bristol City (Europa League), Angers (Coupe de France)

2045-50

2045 kicks off and once again Manceau deceives me. This time it’s a loan spell in Denmark with Brøndby that had me thinking he was gone. Well you know what they say, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice… I’m probably gonna fall for it. It looks like there’s going to be no moves whatsoever once again, until June 2047 arrives and I notice a contract is set to expire. Imagine my shock when Lionel Messi is not offered a contract by Barcelona and is let go. It’s made doubly worse by the fact that of all teams to pick him up, it's Atletico Madrid. Apparently, 37 Ballon d’Or awards aren’t good enough for Barcelona anymore. I don’t even care that nothing else happens. That’s enough to stun me.
Over in the retirement home, Mark Noble moves into a room. After an up and down career, the Englishman did manage some silverware with Bristol City and ended his career with 1317 league appearances. He even earned not just 1, but 90 England caps across his 44-year career.
Around the world, interesting results are still cropping up. England grab their third World Cup win beating Colombia, whilst Honduras win their first-ever Gold Cup. Much to my bitter disappointment, Arsenal win 4 of the 5 Champions Leagues on offer, as well as 3 Premier League titles. Chelsea have a period of bottom 10 finishes which deeply upsets Terry, whilst over in France, Chamois Niortais begin to try and join the top 3. Don’t worry I’ve never heard of them either.
Loyal Players Remaining: 7
Abreu Club Count: 32 clubs in 12 countries
Odd Winners: Honduras (Gold Cup)

2050-55

With the world still reeling at the fact the Messi has moved from Barcelona, everyone kinda forgets to make any moves. In fact, Messi is the first person to move yet again, leaving Atletico in a very cheap 34.5M move to Man City. Which is more in line with where I originally expected him to go. Abreu finishes one contract, at Hapoel Be’er Sheva, and moves onto the next, but it’s with Monterrey so doesn’t count. Sebastian, it has to be new clubs. John Terry is starting to get frustrated with a Chelsea team that has really fallen from grace. The Londoners barely survive relegation in 2052/53, so Terry may be the next to go. Or maybe I know nothing and it’s completely random.
No-one retires this year, so let’s take a brief look at some statistics of our remaining 7 + Messi. All our players have now reached 1000 appearances, with Bargfrede in last at 1173. Messi has crossed 1000 league goals, now a full 300 clear of the chasing pack of Abreu and Kane. On the international level, Thomas Müller becomes the first player to need a rollover of caps twice, moving on to a massive 524 international caps. But it’s Kane who still leads the international goal stat, nearly breaking 350, a full 50 ahead of the German.
Müller does, however, grab a World Cup win for Germany so I’m sure he won’t be too upset. At least until they’re deposed by Holland 4 years later. On the continental level, Bristol City win another Europa League title beating previous champions Espanyol. Middlesbrough also nearly earn a trophy, having joined Bristol as a top 6 team. But the winner of the biggest shock, although I did say this might happen, goes to Chamois Niortais, who topple the dominance of PSG and Monaco to capture a miraculous Ligue 1 title in the last season of the period.
Loyal Players Remaining: 7
Abreu Club Count: 32 clubs in 12 countries
Odd Winners: Chamois Niortais (Ligue 1), Bristol City/Espanyol (Europa League)

2055-60

The summer window of 2055 opens and as I warned may happen, there’s an almost immediate transfer. Fed up with Chelsea’s mediocre finishes, John Terry decides to move on. Unfortunately for Chelsea fans, Arsenal is his next club, which I’m sure will cause a few shudders. A year later and another move comes around, once again due to unhappiness over the club’s performance. Surprisingly it's Thomas Müller,who's annoyed by the fact that Bayern haven’t won a Bundesliga title since 2048, and so runs down his contract. Leverkusen almost earn his signature, but eventually its the glory of PSG that proves too much to resist. But we’re not done there! Another player runs down their contract, opting to move to Vitoria de Setubal in Portugal. Vincent Manceau finally makes a real move rather than constantly faking me out. So with another 3 players down, we’re left with our final 4. The race for the top 3 is hotting up now!
We do have a retirement this time thanks to the transfer window livening up. The world's best-ever player, Lionel Messi, retires from football. He ends up on a total of 1858 league appearances, scoring a massive 1068 goals in this time. 1430 appearances and 895 goals of those belonging to his 45-year career at Barcelona. On the international scene, he earned an impressive 505 caps and 276 goals. But it’s the awards where he shines. 279 individual awards, 82 team titles, 22 league titles, 6 Champions League titles, 45 Ballon d’Or awards. What makes it even crazier is 41 of those Ballon d’Or awards were in a row, as he earned every single one from 2015 to 2056. I don’t think I’ll see another player like that crop up in any save, truly the world’s best player.
Looking out on the world, I can say that it’s a Chamois Niortais player that breaks Messi’s streak, as the French team claim another two Ligue 1 titles. It’s hard to say they’re a “surprise winner” at this point. Bristol City finally make the full step up to join the big guns, winning 3 Carabao Cups, 1 FA Cup, 2 Premier League titles and even a Champions League trophy. If any Bristol City fans want this save to give themselves hope over the future, I can send it over. Internationally it's the era of Portugal, as they claim both the Euro and World Cup trophies.
Loyal Players Remaining: 4
Abreu Club Count: 32 clubs in 12 countries
Odd Winners: Bristol City (Premier League/Champions League), Lyon (Relegation)

With so few players left, now is probably a good time to speed it up once again. The final four will be tough to budge, so how about we move to 10-year intervals to try and cut down on dead years. And I'll be moving to the comments, because I've hit reddits character limit.

Hello there, and welcome. I’ll keep introductions brief, as I’m here to share a writing story, not my life story, yes? This is my first time posting here, so I do hope this is up to snuff. It’s been a long time since I’ve put anything on display for public consumption, but it’s been suggested to me that this might be a good place to share this little project, and find potentially useful feedback, criticisms, and more.
“Sea of Hope” is an ongoing passion project being worked on by multiple people. It’s been a labor of love that’s been in development for a long time, undergoing constant evolution. There’s a lot of plot and history that’s been developed, and much, much more still in development. We wanted to share some of that with you, in hopes that you might be interested in going on that journey with us, and discover why we’re as passionate about it as we are.
Thanks for your time, and enjoy the show.
Links
[Part 2]

>>//0740 Hours, 08 January, 2168
>>//Location: Old Gemini/Lost Twin
>>//Sublocation: Clone Civil War Memorial
>>//Terra Nova, Anastasis System, Mare Spera
The ruins of the original Gemini Base were just as he remembered them: A desolate heap of rubble, destroyed far beyond any hope of repair.
YC-012, “Bourbon”—As he was now known, much to his chagrin—stared up at the massive obelisk that loomed over the ruins. To say it towered above his head would be a pitiful understatement; it stretched so far above him that he could not see the top from where he sat. Its width was much more tangible, at least in the sense that one could circumnavigate the thing in a reasonable amount of time. All the same, he wouldn’t want to run a circuit around it; it would just as well become a marathon.
The hexagonal pillar was darker than the abyss itself, a solemn reminder of the deaths it represented. The memorial’s surface constantly rippled and shimmered, forming fleeting constellations against the void of space. Those faux stars, however, consisted of the names of those who had fallen in the Clone Civil War; scrolling, flickering, fading, and appearing once again upon its surface from time to time. It was imperceptible from any sort of distance, and even up close one might find difficulty reading them due to the near-nanoscopic size of the text. The sheer number of names encompassed by the monolith demanded it.
The trillions of names demanded it.
At night, it was only visible due to the spotlights that were constantly shone against it, ensuring that it could never go unseen, the lives lost never forgotten. Bourbon supposed it likewise served the infinitely more mundane purpose of a safety precaution, of course, to avoid potential issues with any air traffic that may have been arriving or departing from the intact sibling base some distance away.
As its name implied, Gemini had been built as two installations, conjoined by a tram system that ran between the two. It was, in essence, the Coalition of Clone Systems’ capitol. He could still remember when it was first constructed. They’d been the Coalition of Clone Nations back then. He could remember when nothing stood on Terra Nova, and the day they first stepped foot on it.
How long has it been? He wondered to himself. He looked down at the stones he held in his hand, bits of and pieces of rubble that had been exposed to the elements long enough to begin eroding them. He rolled them about in his palm idly, contemplating the base’s state. It wasn’t the first time he’d seen it in this condition, though his last visit had seen him in a far less observant state. He would have bet money that these were the same stones he’d been fondling during his last visit, if he had any cash on him. Given that the CCS didn’t use currency, however, that would’ve made for a fairly hollow bet.
That didn’t stop him from collecting banknotes from Earth whenever he could, of course. Earth memorabilia was still valuable on its own to the right individual.
He continued to ponder the question he’d posed. How long had it been since the last time he’d seen the military installation intact? November 5th, 2048, he recalled. That was just under 120 years ago now. It was burned into his mind, as it was for many other denizens of the Coalition. That was the date that everything had fallen apart. Any clone who’d lived through that day would remember it well. Not just those who’d been stationed at Gemini, or even on Terra Nova, but across all of Mare Spera.
It had been a lifetime ago now. No—Two…? Three…? He struggled to recount how many times he’d transferred from one body to another now, how many times he’d undergone transference. Sometimes he struggled to recount a lot of things, other times they came naturally. His mind swung like a pendulum between trying to erase it all and desperately clinging to whatever threads remained of his memory. So much had come unraveled.
It was maddening, though part of it was his own fault. They didn’t call him “Bourbon” for nothing.
He found one such thread, and took hold. He followed it backwards through time to revisit—Not for the first time, nor the last he suspected— the day of the surprise attack that launched the insurgency to come. Mounting tensions had come to a head, and fractured the Coalition. The rebels splintered off into their own faction, the Unified Clone Nations, and both sides spent plenty of time killing each other for the next two decades, leaving long-lasting wounds that still had never healed completely.
Bastards didn’t even have the decency to come up with an original name.
“Penny for your thoughts?” came the familiar drawl of an old friend.
He reeled himself back in, looking up from his hand. He adjusted his sunglasses to peer over their rims at the man who’d addressed him. YC-087, “Bull,” stood ahead of him. The Coalition’s Commander-in-Chief was half-turned towards him, free of his aides for at least a moment. Bourbon wished he had a camera. The morning sun cast its soft golden rays across him, painting an image of him that many of the Coalition would’ve very much liked to see.
He was wearing the full extent of his formal attire, sporting the deep red, pristine white, and dark blue uniform that was unique to his station. They were the colors of the Coalition’s flag. The blue was indicative of the void of space. The red and white represented the collided galaxies that formed “Mare Spera,” the “Sea of Hope.” It also served as a slight allusion to the Coalition’s Earthly origins in the United States military.
He sported his ceremonial pauldron on his left shoulder, a remnant or replication of the retired GPAU armor. The GPAU had been their first real armor, as opposed to simple plate carriers and ballistic padding. It had since been replaced by the M-RAU and its subsequent iterations, a much more advanced armor system, befitting a civilization that trod the stars. Its purpose as a part of his uniform was purely for symbolism and aesthetics, with his other shoulder and forearms sporting the segmented angular plating that had become incredibly commonplace amongst Coalition uniform designs.
The creases in his face seemed more apparent every time Bourbon saw him, and the circles under his eyes grew darker. It was hard to place the age of his current body, as it seemed keen on catching up to the age of his mind. Bull came into being in 1988, which put him at 179 years old as it was. Physical age meant nothing to a clone aside from the need for another body transfer and the physical therapy associated with it before they could get back to their duties, but to say age was “just a number” would be disingenuous.
The wind blew gently through Bull’s cropped black hair. Bourbon could remember when Bull fancied himself a charmer, his hair longer and slicked back with pomade. At the time, paired with his personality, it had evoked the image of someone from an old Western movie. He played the part well, complete with drawl and Southern charm. While he had yet to lose his accent, and he could still play the part of the charismatic leader, he seemed to have lost interest in playing cowboy.
Something subtle in his dark eyes told Bourbon that there might have been some hidden level of concern. That was fair, if he was being honest with himself. Bull was the one who’d discovered him here during his last visit five years prior, which had been a sordid affair.
Bourbon realized he’d been staring stupidly at him as opposed to giving him an answer. Seeing Bull after all this time still felt strange to him. All the same, he’d left an uncomfortable amount of time between the question and a response. It took him a moment to remember what the question even was. He chuffed as he remembered, finally answering in his typical low, sultry voice as he readjusted his shades. “You couldn’t possibly hope to afford all my thoughts even at a penny a piece.”
Bull turned to face him fully. “No? How about a dollar for the bushel, then?”
Bourbon grinned, seizing the moment. He mimed a microphone with his free hand. “A penny for your thoughts, but a dollar for your insides, or a fortune for your disaster?” he belted out with gusto. He let his hand fall and shrugged, stating the next line with far less bravado. “I’m just a painter, and I’m drawing a blank.”
“Your musical prowess leaves nothing to be desired,” Bull said, his tone flat in spite of an amused expression. “Save, perhaps, an answer to my question.”
Bourbon took a deep breath and sighed, planting his elbows on his knees. He stared back down at the stones in his hand. He rolled one between his finger and his thumb, then let it drop. “Frankly, I would have been far happier had I never been made to step foot in this festering dung heap ever again,” he said. “Too many memories.” He rolled the stones in his palm again, hearing the clattering. He let another drop. His brow furrowed, and he nodded in the direction of the monument. “Too many ghosts.” He looked back up. “Had you told me when last we met here that I would once more find myself seated upon this same pile of rubble? I believe I promptly would have told you to shoot me on the spot.”
Bull gave him a smug look. “You could always choose another assortment of rocks to perch on,” he offered. He gestured somewhere off to his side. “Those ones look mighty comfortable. You’re certainly not starved for choice.”
Bourbon glanced towards the pile Bull had indicated. It was a spiny sea urchin of debris, bits and pieces of rebar thrusting outwards at all angles. He let yet another stone drop, shrugging. “I’ll pass,” he said, waving dismissively. “I prefer my seating arrangements a tad less likely to give me a case of tetanus.”
“Well. You could always… Stand. Presuming that’s not too… Pedestrian for you,” Bull retorted, rocking on his heels as he emphasized the word.
Bourbon gave a look of mock offense. “Like some kind of plebeian?” he gasped. “That you have the gall.” He paused and sighed, letting all the stones fall from his hand. He dusted his hands off, and pushed himself to stand. He held his arms out wide. “Satisfied?” he asked with a smirk.
Bull chuckled, looking around at all the debris himself. There was a pause before he spoke again. When he did, there was a solemnity to his voice. “You know, when the orbital elevator collapsed,” he began slowly, pointing towards a spot not too far from where either of them stood. “I was standing… Right about there.” Bourbon followed his direction, then glanced back upwards towards the monument. “We were trying to secure the elevator. Just when we were sure we had it on lock, they must’ve detonated charges they’d placed somewhere up above.”
The monument stood now where the orbital elevator once had, on its massive raised platform. It mimicked the shape as the elevator had, large and hexagonal, though not quite the same scale. It was centered the same, positioned the same, though lacking in dimension. Especially vertically. Saying such didn’t diminish the monument’s grandeur in any way, but rather put things into perspective. It was hard to compare anything to something that stretched beyond a planet’s atmosphere.
Bull continued, looking upwards towards the sky, shaking his head. “Worst sound I ever heard, haven’t heard anything quite like it since. The whole thing started to flounder about, not being anchored anymore. Sound of metal twisting and groaning, that odd twang the cables made as they thrashed about. I looked up to watch as it warped and began to shake pieces off of it.” He squinted, clearly envisioning the moment. “You know what the damnedest thing is though?”
Bourbon had a feeling he knew where Bull was going with the story, but didn’t interrupt. Instead he stood and listened, knowing Bull would continue of his own volition. “Watching the other half of it going up into space. One of the craziest things you can imagine, watching something that big just getting sucked out into the sky like that. That ain’t even the worst of it, though.” He turned back to Bourbon. “Worst of it was that I could make out something else moving up there. A ship.”
He put on an expression of amusement, though he was certain it was only to cover the resentment he’d felt. “I could see that ship move in and intercept the station the elevator was anchored to. And they hauled the whole damned station away. Must’ve loaded up the elevator with as much as they could and figured to steal whatever they had still left on the thing. I can’t even begin to tell you what was running through my mind as I watched those bastards steal our elevator.” He chuckled, a hint of bitterness behind it. “Of all the outrageous things I’ve seen, I don’t think anything’s got my goat quite as much as that.”
Bourbon glanced around. He replayed the events of the attack in his head. Things had been utter chaos the whole time, which distorted the timeline in his head to some degree. It didn’t help matters that it had been over a century ago. “I believe that was shortly after we secured the armory, or somewhere abouts. Chi had ventured off to retake the motor pool shortly prior, and I was off with a contingent of my own to take back the nursery.” So much of that day blended together, but he recalled the scene unfolding at the cloning facility well enough—He might have managed to scrub it from his memory, were it not for the fact that a living reminder of it was hounding him constantly as of late. “I recall it was near the end of the attack, at any rate. Seemed pretty apparent that we had the upper hand at that point, if it could be said as such.”
He scoffed, turning his nose up at a thought. “Frankly, I’m still insulted by their choice of cliché. November 5th? Really? They really had to go and pick a date already associated with treason?” He rolled his eyes, taking a few slow paces forward, holding his arms aloft as he posed his rhetorical question. “They decided to go the route of “Remember, remember, the 5th of November,” enact their treason, then stole our bloody name while they were at it? What a joke, with a terrible punchline at that.”
Bull arched a brow at him. “Would you rather they’d have chosen the 1st of November instead, or would you instead be chiding them for their missed opportunity?”
“I would rather they’d not betrayed us at all, if we’re talking semantics,” Bourbon retorted.
“Point,” Bull acknowledged.
Bourbon gave him a shit-eating grin. “All the same, you would, however, be absolutely correct in assuming that I’d have simply taken the other stance. They’d be taking the piss from me in either instance.” He chuckled, moving towards the monument itself.
The monument stood atop the platform their orbital elevator had once occupied, which thankfully had meant that it had a stable foundation as it was. It also made for a very large foundation. A few other things occupied the space as such. Presently, an entire assembly of people occupied the platform, in preparation for the ceremonies to come. Today marked the fifth-year anniversary of the officially declared end of the Hybridas Conflict. Yet another catastrophic war, though not one that the Coalition had in any way perpetrated. Rather, they’d been invaded by an outside force, the Hybridas.
Giving the Hybridas any simple description was a relatively futile effort, though he’d have all day to revisit a description for them. They’d come from the nearby galaxy of Ptolmyra, which was governed by the Ptolmyran Confederacy. The Confederacy was, as one might anticipate, comprised of different groups of Xenos who’d banded together to form an alliance within their own space. The Hybridas were the product of a race who had not been playing by the Confederacy’s rules. Somehow, they slipped under the radar into Mare Spera, where it promptly started destroying entire Coalition worlds.
Oops.
The Hybridas weren’t their only creations. Nor were they the first of their creations to fuck over the Coalition in some capacity. No, they managed to wreak havoc on them far earlier on, during the Sigtri incident… Which would end up being one of the things to spark the Civil War in the first place. And as it would seem, they shared an even deeper history. In the end, they’d had far more influence over the Coalition’s history than they ever should have—Considering that their entire race had been dead before the Coalition ever even left Earth.
A fact they only discovered when they tried to hunt them down, and found the Confederacy instead.
With the Hybridas Conflict wrapped up, Confederate and Coalition leaders were ready to finally sit down and have a chat. They were expecting the Confederate leaders soon. Meanwhile, all of the Coalition’s major players were already assembled and waiting. He gave a sidelong glance at everyone as he strode closer to the structure, mentally taking note of everyone there. He knew he was the odd man out; he had far less business being present than everyone else.
And yet here you stand, Colonel, with a fraction of a galaxy in the palm of your hand…
Aside from the entirety of Coalition High Command, there were the far more permanent objects around the monolith, namely a few terminals placed at regular intervals around the dark object. There was one larger, central terminal at what was deemed the front of the monument, which could be used to control the display on the obsidian surface. That was more or less to be the center point for the whole shindig, and Bull would be using it as a podium as he addressed the alien delegates upon their arrival.
It could be setting to multiple different settings, all serving purposes more or less particular. The way in which the names appeared and disappeared, or scrolled, or even the ability to pull up specific units, ships, or other such things. Ship emblems or even silhouettes could cross the memorial’s dark surface, fleets crossing the space between stars as surely as the stars themselves were on it. Whoever had designed it had surely put a great deal of effort into it.
Its default setting showed the constellations that made up their galaxy, and the names of the fallen made up their stars. The individual stars were comprised of the names of those who came from those systems. The idea was to represent their lives, as opposed to their deaths. It had been built after the Civil War, during a dark time. They’d won, but it seemed they’d lost infinitely more. Many lost the will to go on, and soon ceased to be.
They had a new fight to win. A fight to survive, to keep people from giving up. The “Survivor’s War,” they called it. An apt, if uninspired description. The memorial had been painstakingly constructed in an attempt to commemorate the fallen, and hopefully raise morale. Whether or not it saw any level of success was certainly up for debate. He knew it didn’t do very much for him, not that he’d had many opportunities to witness it. Mare Spera was a big galaxy, and he didn’t spend much time around Terra Nova after the war.
The obsidian obelisk represented something more than that, however. It was a promise. The monument itself was aptly named “The End,” which encompassed many things. It promised that the war was at an end, the violence was at an end. It promised that those who had met their end would not be forgotten. But most of all, it promised the end of death itself for the Coalition. The Lazarus Division of the CRDA managed to reconstruct their ability to create neural templates, mental back-ups. A “save point” in the event of death, to be recovered and transferred into a new body. One would lose their memories beyond that checkpoint, but they would live again, missing only a few months’ worth of time.
There was the argument, of course, that it wasn’t really the same person. Whoever that person was, they had still died. This was a replication. This was how transference worked as well. When one’s body was no longer fit for the tour of duty, a new one was created. If one was lucky, they could get a solid 30 years or so out of a single body before having to switch. The mind was replicated, and they would shed their old body in favor of a new one, physically and genetically identical to their last—So long as they chose not to make any modifications, of course.
The new body would contain the same consciousness as the last, the memories, knowledge, and feelings. There was an adjustment period as one went through physical therapy to become accustomed to their new self, and life went on for them. Everyone either had done it, or would do it at some point. Bourbon had done it, Bull had done it. And they would do it time and time again, for so long as they endured. For all intents and purposes, they had achieved some sense of immortality, so long as they chose not to terminate their line.
Bourbon didn’t know if they’d ever permanently lost anyone after that, with the exceptions being those who voluntarily chose the end. He knew of only one odd instance where the backups were lost, for a single person, and it was still being investigated. Oddly enough, it was Chi, who he’d referenced mere moments ago in his conversation with Bull. Something about that didn’t sit well with him. Many things about her disappearance didn’t sit well with him. Of course, that was true of many things these days. Many would label him as conspiratorial, an alarmist, or in general just distasteful.
They weren’t wrong, per se. He acknowledged that he was all of those things—Including distasteful, at times, depending on how much he was living up to his namesake. That didn’t mean he was wrong either, despite how often people discredited his efforts to raise concern about certain issues. It was all a matter of perspective, and he just continued to hang on to things that many considered dead and in the ground.
Idealism and pessimism were a stone’s throw apart, and he had become quite adept at slinging stones.
He realized that at some point while he’d been mulling things over, he’d found himself in front of one of the terminals. Not the main podium, but one of the smaller, plaque-like exhibits surrounding the structure. They could be used to pull up a great deal of information on the war, ranging from the particulars of separate battles to individuals’ entire service records. He idly inspected it, running a finger across its surface. Clean. It seemed someone had taken the time to dust them off for the ceremony to follow.
A sense of uncertainty plagued him. He didn’t really know how long he’d been standing there staring at the thing. He felt a pang within him, a certain call, and a thousand images flashed before his eyes. One particular scene played out before him, as it had time and again. Something dark stirred in the corner of his vision, and a chorus of whispers, familiar yet unintelligible, echoed in the recesses of his mind. It wouldn’t do him any good to push them aside. There were few sounds he could recall from the memory, and none of them were words.
There was a question that burned within him, longing to be answered.
He contemplated using the terminal, but something else began to burn. Something in the back of his skull felt like it was on fire, and he felt like he was on high alert.
Eyes.
He could feel Bull’s attention on him. He was waiting expectantly.
They both knew exactly what Bourbon was thinking about as he stood in front of the terminal. What he didn’t know, however, was whether Bull would be looking directly at him, or if he would be watching him out of his peripherals. Would he be pretending not to notice, or only marginally aware? Or staring directly at him? He wasn’t sure which scenario he liked better. None of them appealed, really.
He was too sober for this shit.
His hand fell away from the terminal. He decided to play it off.
He closed his eyes and spun on his heel, running his hands through his long, dirty-blond hair to perform an exaggerated hair flip. When he opened his eyes, he put on his cockiest grin, bracing for impact.
Bull wasn’t looking at him.
He released the breath he didn’t know he was holding. Bourbon would’ve been in his peripheral vision, but the Coalition’s leader hadn’t turned to watch. That was the outcome he’d expected, and admittedly preferred. Bull wasn’t stupid, he knew what had just happened. He was undoubtedly aware that Bourbon knew that he was watching, directly or indirectly. He was feigning ignorance for Bourbon’s sake, rather than make him feel as though he was under the magnifying glass. He was thankful for it.
He was waiting for Bourbon to approach the subject of his own accord, rather than initiate a confrontation himself. That was Bull’s way of operating. When it came to decisions that required immediate action, he didn’t hesitate. When it came to smaller things, however, he preferred a more tactful approach. He seemed to instead prefer putting pieces in place and setting them in motion, letting them unfold how they would. He always provided a way deeper in, and a way out.
The door was open for whenever Bourbon wanted to confront the subject. If he wanted to. It was the secret he’d kept from the universe, the one thing nobody was ever meant to know. Bourbon had made the admission to him already, but hadn’t spoken of it again. It wasn’t a conversation he was ready to have.
He hoped he’d be able to one day, but for now, he couldn’t.
Bourbon stepped away from the wretched thing, before he made a stupid decision by changing his mind. “You know…” he began slowly, employing a mischievous tone. “I find myself thinking about how relentlessly dour this place truly is.” He sauntered towards Bull again, coming to stand at his side. He tilted his head to the side as he met his friend’s gaze. He gestured behind him. “The obsidian tombstone’s really quite nice, whoever put it together did a fantastic job. No sarcasm, full truth.”
Bull’s stare was fixed straight ahead, in the direction they expected the rest of their party to come from. He took in a deep breath, bracing himself. “There’s either a “but” or a continuation to this line of thought.”
“Oh, I’m simply idly musing at the idea of using the grounds as a venue for a heavy metal concert. We’ve already got an appropriate backdrop, and plenty of space. Set up a few pyrotechnics, and we could put on quite a show.” He stroked his chin as he pretended to be in deep thought, feeling his fingers running through his facial hair. “Maybe host it on the anniversary of the war’s end? The idea of the monument was to celebrate their lives, what better way to celebrate than with a music festival?”
The Commander-in-Chief slowly turned his head to stare straight at him. His expression was utterly blank, and his eyes bore straight through him. “You’re proposing that we host a rock concert on what some people would view as being tantamount to Holy ground, and others would view as the graveyard of our hopes and dreams?”
“Absolutely. And a fancy barbecue.” Bourbon wasn’t even remotely serious. He was moreso just trying to get a laugh out of Bull. He imagined the man didn’t do much of that these days. “The United States had Memorial Day back on Earth, right? Celebrate the lives of the fallen by hosting giant cookouts every year? Sometimes with fireworks and such? Would it truly be any different?”
Bull’s stare turned incredulous, though his intonation remained flat. Bourbon was beginning to wonder if Bull actually realized that he was joking. “And I imagine you’d like to volunteer yourself to orchestrate the entire event?”
“Who, me? No. I would never. Bull, I would never. Well. I might. Maybe. I might maybe definitely do that.” He shrugged. “Who better? Gaelia?”
Bull stared for a moment longer, but the idea of CWAD’s cold leader hosting any kind of festivities was enough to finally break Bull’s composure. He finally cracked a smile and chuckled, and let out a sigh that might have been relief. “No, I suppose leaving such things to the professionals would be a better choice. Especially now that you seem to fancy yourself a rock legend anyway.”
“Fancy myself?” Bourbon shifted his weight onto one foot, crossing his arms. “Oh, darling, everyone fancies me, regardless of whether or not they’re willing to admit it. They always have. I’m the idol everyone craves, here to bring some sound and vision to the dull, colorless lives of our people.” He made an exaggerated gesture towards the sky. “And beyond.”
“How very noble of you.”
“What can I say except “You’re welcome?"
“And extraordinarily humble,” Bull chuckled, turning his gaze forward again. “Just remember what Lee said. As much as I’m sure the idea of amassing a collective of alien groupies is amongst your highest aspirations, and I know you do so long to wow them, I’m afraid I’ll have to ask that we keep our Summit as…” He paused. "Professional as possible. Save the dazzling for after we get into their good graces, if you would be so kind.”
Bourbon mimed shock, placing a hand over his chest so as to indicate himself. He let out a mock gasp. “Are you implying that I would jeopardize our relationship with the Xenos? Good sir, I am surprised at you. When have I ever given you reason to believe I wouldn’t take such a thing seriously?”
Bull gave him an incredulous look.
“Okay, fine, you’ve made your point. And yet, here I stand. Normal uniform, no personal touches, as requested." He tugged at his leather jacket, spinning in place to display that he’d made no modifications to it. It only displayed the patches associated with himself and his unit, even as vibrant as they were. Other than that, there were only the fairly standard bits of armor that were part of many Coalition uniforms. His featured an armored collar that melded into a plating that protected his neck, upper back, and uppermost parts of his shoulders. The segmented plates likewise graced his upper arms and forearms. If he needed to get into a close-quarters fight, he would have been fairly well off.
The jacket had seen minimal use. Bourbon had another similar jacket that he typically wore instead—One which featured a number of more personal details.
The only “exotic” part of his outfit were his sunglasses, a pair of semi-square, angular aviators with side shields around the temples. The framing around the eyes were black and gold metal, while the arms were made of a matte black plastic. They sported red-mirrored lenses presently due to being in a polarized state, but he could transition them to clear if he so desired. He could use them as a Heads-Up Display in the event that he didn’t want to use his implants, which made them a useful piece of tech. He’d be taking them off when their company started arriving in full, for the sake of formalities and good manners.
“I made sure to tidy up as much as possible,” he continued, extending a leg to indicate the crease in his pant leg. He then pulled up the pant leg itself to show off the shine to his boots. “And I’m sober.” He frowned deeply. "Painfully sober. I didn’t even take a shot before I came here. Surely that counts for something?”
“It does. Speaking of dazzling, how’s that outfit of yours coming along anyway?”
Satisfied, Bourbon crossed his arms. “It’s done. Had to sort of figure it all out myself, we don’t exactly have an overabundance of sequins lying about.” He smirked. “At least, we didn’t. But we did have an overabundance of gemstones that nobody was using…”
“Oh no.”
“Oh, yes, darling. I’d have worn it today if I could’ve gotten away with it. Niki wouldn’t even let me apply any eyeliner.”
Bull blinked, momentarily taken aback by the remark. It only took him a moment to recover. “I don’t know how or why that statement surprises me, yet here we are. You’re committed to this bit now, aren’t you?”
Bourbon huffed, baring a toothy grin. “Don’t you know who I think I am?” he shot back, harkening back to his earlier song reference. Not his favorite band, nor preferred genre, but he’d be damned if he was going to pass up the opportunity to make a musical reference. “The short answer is yes. Besides, I should think that given the day’s events, playing my part should be preferable, would it not? At least later on, when it becomes relevant. The long answer is that I’ve always been this way, just… More subdued? I should hope you’ve not forgotten.”
“My office hasn’t rendered me senile, no.”
“Yet.”
“Yet,” Bull agreed. “All the same, no, I’ve not forgotten. You’ve always been one for theatrics.” He gave a subtle grin. “I suppose the HUB’s just finally given you an outlet for it. Now the Coalition as a whole gets to see what levels of madness you’ve hidden away from us.”
Bourbon gave Bull a smirk. “Bingo, although, come to think of it…” He turned his attention towards the rest of the assembly again. “I suppose most of them would very likely shoot me if I went for the full Monty on this one as it is.” They were all off in their own worlds, tending to their last-minute business. He hadn’t really paid much attention to them until now, though his moment of self-consciousness made him more aware of them. Not the matter of making a spectacle of himself; No, he had no shame, he couldn’t possibly embarrass himself. But the feelings that this place brought to him, the things that had happened here, he didn’t much care to make visible to these people.
[Part 2]